RBA warning as 76pc market surge flags fifth rate hike

RBA Governor Michele Bullock is between a rock and a hard place with rates, inflation, jobs and the economy. Picture: NewsWire / Nikki Short Aussies are being warned to brace for a brutal double rate hike as market pricing peaks for a fourth rise in days – as a hidden tax trap threatens to force the Reserve Bank into a horror fifth spike. After cutting rates three times in 2025 – which it un-did with three hikes in early 2026 – the Reserve Bank now finds itself pressured by long-term interest rate pricing, with traders already looking past the next move to bet a fifth increase will be on the table. Institutional traders went from a 50/50 coin flip on August 31 to an overwhelming 76 per cent expectation of a September rate hike. (Source: ASX) Three-quarters of market pricing is now locking in a cash rate jump from 4.35 per cent to 4.60 per cent, putting RBA on notice to hike at its upcoming board meeting – with traders already moving on to price in hike five. In a major update to clients, Westpac Chief Economist Luci Ellis confirmed institutional money markets have rapidly repriced the Reserve Bank’s trajectory after stubborn inflation and what appears to be resilient demand. “A rat...