Will mortgage rates rise to 8% or drop to 6%?

Mortgage rates are over 7% again, something very common in the past few years, but 2026 was supposed to be the first year that mortgage spreads were going to shield the housing market from rates getting above 7%. However, as we enter the seventh month of the conflict with Iran, oil prices are at $100, inflation is above target, the unemployment rate is 4.1%, jobless claims are low, nominal growth is still positive and the Fed just started a new rate-hike cycle. I discussed this with Editor-in-Chief Sarah Wheeler on this episode of the HousingWire Daily podcast and wrote this article with a ton of charts. Let’s take a look at the Housing Market Tracker data and what can drive rates down to 6% or push them up to 8%. 10-year yield and mortgage rates In the 2026 HousingWire forecast, I anticipated the following ranges: Mortgage rates between 5.75% and 6.75% The 10-year yield fluctuating between 3.80% and 4.60% Obviously, things changed this year with the conflict. I believe mortgage rates would have ranged between 6.25%-6.50% if the conflict had never happened, as the 10-year yield should have ranged between 4.31%-4.60% with the economic and labor data improving that Fed Chairman Warsh...