Is a new Fed rate-hike cycle good for mortgage rates?

A common take I see right now is that a Fed rate hike will help bonds and mortgage rates because the bond market will believe the Fed is taking inflation seriously. Ladies and gentlemen: be careful what you wish for, because I can tell you one rate hike isn’t going to do squat for the things driving inflation. Also, I believe a lot of people are thinking about 2024, when the Fed cut rates and bond yields started to climb higher, along with mortgage rates. So naturally, some will think the same will happen with the Fed rate hike. However, what is driving the Fed to be hawkish isn’t going away with a Fed rate hike tomorrow.Now the inflation story would look different with no trade war and no Iran conflict. There’s not much you can do about the massive AI spending going into our economy, but one thing is for sure: a new Fed rate-hike cycle isn’t good for mortgage rates unless the economy slows down or we get resolution on the two things above that we can control. So let me give you a historical view on what the 10-year yield looks like when the Fed starts a new rate-hike cycle. Fed rate hikes and the 10-year yield When you look at the history of the Fed Funds rate and a new Fed rate-h...