Toronto real estate’s downturn continued last month, showing few signs of improvement. Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) data shows home prices made a minor increase in February. Despite the mild bump, sales slipped to one of the lowest levels on record, while robust inventory continued to stagnate in the market.
Toronto Real Estate Prices Back To Where They Were 4 Years Ago
The price of a typical home across Greater Toronto.
Source: CREA; TRREB; Better Dwelling.
Greater Toronto real estate prices are sending mixed messages, with data diverging between adjusted and unadjusted readings. The unadjusted price of a typical home rose 0.29% (+$2,700) to $938,800 in February, 7.89% (-$80,416) lower than last year and 26.76% (-$343,100) below the market’s record high. Despite the mild monthly bump, prices are back to where they were four years ago.
Adjusted numbers tell a slightly different story. TRREB noted seasonally adjusted home prices actually fell last month, but did not specify the final HPI or monthly change. Regardless of the actual number, that places the adjusted HPI roughly where it was in early 2020. This is great news for those looking to buy a house in the board’s winter model, but it makes little difference to those living in reality.
Toronto Real Estate Sales Fall To 20+ Year Low, Inventory Just Off Highs
Toronto real estate sales vs active listings, February.
Source: CREA; TRREB; Better Dwelling.
Greater Toronto existing home sales slipped to new lows. There were 3,868 homes sold in February, down 6.3% from last year and 66.2% below the month’s record in 2021. Weak sales are expected during the winter, but this is the worst February in at least 20 years.
Toronto inventory slipped, though it remains much stronger than usual. The board reported 10,705 new listings in February, down 17.7% from last year. This is a sharp drop, but new listings remain roughly where they were pre-pandemic. It’s not clear if the abrupt decline is due to sellers holding off for firmer conditions or waiting until the spring. What is clear is there’s no shortage of inventory, as the pile stagnating on the market struggles to find buyers.
Total inventory slipped, but significantly less than sales. There were 19,314 total active listings in February, down 2.4% from last year’s record for the month. Even with the fairly substantial improvement to new listings, the sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) climbed only four points to 36.1%—an improvement, but still a buyer’s market where industry experts expect prices to fall.
At the same time, the sales-to-active-listings ratio slipped, indicating the demand balance is still eroding.
Ultimately, February did little to shift the broader trajectory of Toronto real estate. While a mild month-over-month price bump might generate optimistic headlines, that number lacks market validation when backed by historically abysmal sales volume. With buyers firmly sidelined and a massive pile of nearly 20,000 active listings stagnating on the market, the current standoff continues. It’s easy to find a handful of buyers willing to pay a fraction of a percent more than the month prior; it’s much harder to convince the rest of the market to follow suit. Until either sellers capitulate on price or a sudden wave of affordability materializes, expect this frozen market to persist.
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