Time for your cheat sheet on this week’s top stories.
Canadian Real Estate
Canadian Mortgage Delinquencies Just Made A Rare, Historic Jump
Canadian banks are experiencing a sudden and abrupt climb in mortgage delinquencies—again. Banks reported the arrears rate climbed 1 basis point to 0.26% in December, the highest since June 2020. However, the key insight to watch is the count, which climbed 4.2% (+520) to 12,900 mortgages in arrears. At roughly 100x the average move, a monthly surge of this size is extremely rare. The shift suggests mortgage stress is still accelerating, not easing.
Canada Uses Accounting Trick To Hit Delayed Immigration Target: PBO
Canada will meet its goal of reducing non-permanent residents (NPRs) to 5% of the population… sort of. The non-partisan PBO’s analysis shows the implementation is pushed back a year. They also plan to turn 148,000 NPRs into permanent residents (PRs), on top of the existing PR targets. If averaged across the two years and targets are met, Canada would have one of the biggest years for PRs on record.
Canada’s Business Churn: Near-Record Closures, State-Backed Growth
Canada’s total active business count climbed 0.1% to 939,700 in November, 0.28% (+2,600) higher than last year. Low growth is better than no growth, but the headline data doesn’t exactly tell the whole story. November saw a massive 45,400 businesses close, the third-most for the month on record. The churn problem is even worse than it looks—half of new businesses operate in non-market sectors. This ratio of taxpayer-dependent business growth is rarely seen outside of a recession.
Canadians Fear Inflation Rising, Credit Cards Used As Cash Flow: TransUnion
Canadians are doing better than they expected, but still can’t shake that negative feeling. That’s what credit bureau TransUnion found in its quarterly Consumer Pulse Survey for Q4 2025. The share of consumers pessimistic about their finances over the next 12 months hit 31%. The pessimism is on par with highs seen during the initial interest rate shock and the start of a trade war, though there’s no clear threat in sight. The top concerns cited by consumers are inflation (84%), housing costs (54%), and fear of recession (51%).
Toronto Mortgage Delinquencies Hit 13-Year High, Vancouver Quietly Follows
Delinquent mortgages are rising aggressively in Canada’s largest cities. Toronto’s mortgage delinquency rate climbed to 0.27% in Q3 2025, 4.5x the record low and the highest rate since 2012. Vancouver saw a smaller, but still aggressive, doubling from lows to 0.19%, the highest in nearly nine years. Delinquencies are a liquidity problem, and rates are likely to rise until the investor-dominated markets make sense for end-users.
Toronto Real Estate
Toronto New Home Sales Hit Record Low, 76 Months of Supply & Counting
Greater Toronto new home sales hit a record low with just 269 new homes sold in January, down 36% from last year and 90.7% below the 2022 peak. Despite weak sales and 76 months of inventory, prices haven’t budged much. With few buyers and prices not moving towards their budgets, it’s hard to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
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