The gap between renting and paying off a mortgage is closing
Renters could be paying more than a mortgage each month by 2034, as rising rents erode deposit savings and lengthen the road to home ownership.
New PropTrack modelling shows renting is on track to outstrip loan repayments on a typical Brisbane home within the next decade, shrinking the monthly gap and piling pressure on the state’s tenants even as interest rates remain high.
At today’s lenders’ rate of 5.75 per cent, a typical Brisbane rent of about $2,817 a month sits $1,422 below median mortgage repayments of roughly $4,239. That gap was projected to close by March 2034, when weekly rent hits $976.
New modelling reveals renters will be paying more than a mortgage within the decade
If rates lift to 6.1 per cent, repayments rise to about $4,402 and the crossover slips to December 2034 (weekly rent: $1,013).
For households trying to save, the current month‑to‑month buffer between renting and owning of around $1,422 is being chipped away as rents keep climbing.
PropTrack’s data assumed a median Brisbane purchase price of $908,000 with a 20 per cent deposit on a 30‑year principal‑and‑interest loan.
Repayments excluded ownership costs like council rates, strata and maintenance, while rents were compounded at the 10‑year average monthly rate.
The analysis reveals the extent of the renter’s catch 22, where monthly costs keep rising along with house prices, making it harder than ever to save for a house deposit.
Ray White Group chief economist, Nerida Conisbee. Picture: Supplied
Ray White economist Nerida Conisbee said affordability was at its weakest level in years, with deposits taking longer to build and mortgage serviceability stretching household budgets.
“Home ownership rates are declining, particularly among younger Australians, and affordability pressures are a clear driver of that trend,” Ms Conisbee said.
“For many buyers, the deposit is the biggest roadblock. Rents are rising and saving is getting tougher.”
She said demand had shifted towards entry-level stock and the unit market, as buyers traded space for a foothold.
“Government schemes can shave years off the deposit hurdle — they don’t make homes cheap, but they change how people get in.”
Brisbane buyers’ agent Lauren Jones
Brisbane buyers’ agent Lauren Jones said the next 12-24 months could provide a window of opportunity for dual-income renters to leverage incentives.
“Five per cent is becoming the norm, but repayments go up significantly versus a 20 per cent deposit,” Ms Jones said.
Ms Jones tipped firm price growth over the next year and warned delaying could cost buyers more than they save.
It comes as Queensland recorded the nation’s strongest spike in mortgage demand, with enquiries up 17 per cent year‑on‑year in Q4 2025, according to Equifax.
“This is a significant increase in mortgage demand, and a level of activity we haven’t seen in nearly five years,” said Equifax Australia chief solution officer Kevin James.
Equifax chief solutions officer Kevin James
ABS data shows first-home buyer owner-occupier loan commitments rose 6.8 per cent in the December quarter 2025 to 31,783 loans, up 9.1 per cent over the year.
Newlyweds James and Tess Wootton say making the leap from renters to first-home owners gave them a head start on their life together.
The Brisbane 20-somethings have renovated their two-bedroom townhouse and are preparing to upgrade to a larger property before starting a family.
Mr Wootton, a construction project manager, paid $480,000 for the Moorooka property in August 2023.
He was able to save a deposit of close to $100,000 while staying at his parents’ house, paying them $250 a week.
Newlyweds James and Tess Wootton are preparing to sell their first home, a townhouse they have renovated in Marooka. Picture: Liam Kidston
“I was a fortunate they were happy to keep me for a few more years, knowing the ultimate goal was to save for that first home,” Mr Wootton said.
“It was a lot cheaper for me to stay and sacrifice my social life to save hardcore for three to four years, rather than having to go out and rent, which is a big challenge for young people trying to save these days.”
Their townhouse is on the market from March 18 with Place Bulimba.
Place Bulimba selling agent Jaymee Gilbert noted a spike in unit listings as owners responded to the increased demand.
“Units and townhouses close to the city are providing opportunities for first-home buyers to get into the market and get some equity,” she said.
“It might not be their forever home, but I would say if you can have an asset and pay it off, that is always better than paying off someone else’s mortgage.”
Brisbane units are in hot demand
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Tailored Buyers Agents co-founder Amelia Reddiex said the city’s hot market was pushing some first-timers into decisions they may regret.
“When markets run hot, it’s easy to make the wrong compromises in order to secure a property at what feels like a bargain price, but a bargain property is rarely cheap,” Ms Reddiex said.
She advised targeting “bridesmaid” suburbs near blue‑chip postcodes, favouring older walk‑up blocks with lower body corporate costs, and avoiding one‑bedroom apartments, which could be volatile on resale.
Tailored Buyers Agents co-founder Amelia Reddiex
Ms Reddiex also flagged rent‑vesting as a viable path for priced-out buyers.
“You simply cannot out‑save the market.
“Every month you delay, prices are moving,” she said.
Ms Jones said the city’s one-bedroom market had become the most competitive of all.
“I have seen 55-plus groups at these open homes lately.”
Across capital cities, PropTrack’s crossover point when a mortgage is cheaper than rent comes sooner in markets with the fastest rising rents.
Perth flips first, by December 2029 at 5.75 per cent, followed by Hobart in August 2031, then Adelaide, February 2033.
Brisbane’s crossover is ahead of Canberra in July 2034, and Melbourne (June 2035), while Sydney is last in December 2038.
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