The Fed rate-hike cycle has started. What’s next?

Today, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh gave one of the best Fed press events I have ever seen, and much of what he said sets the course for the economy and housing for the next few years. Unlike some predictions I saw that said the Fed rate hike would drive bond yields lower, yields rose even as stocks fell while Warsh was talking. Yesterday, I wrote this article about the Fed rate hike cycle and what history tells us about how it will affect mortgage rates, noting why this cycle is different than previous ones. On tomorrow’s episode of the HousingWire Daily podcast with Editor in Chief Sarah Wheeler, we go in-depth about this Fed meeting and in particular, Warsh’s Q&A session with reporters. But I also wanted to give you my quick takes. The key for mortgage rates! Warsh did a good job today outlining how the economy has improved recently, especially from last year, and what’s driving rates higher: The labor market improved. A lot of corporate issuance for AI companies created competition for bonds. The conflict in the Middle East. I looked at the key factors for rates for the rest of 2026 and 2027 in this podcast, but now, after the Fed meeting I want to point them out again. 1. The Ira...