Real estate brokers say rising mortgage rates derail early 2026 housing rebound

Heading into 2026, most economists and industry analysts were anticipating a stronger housing market than in past years. And for the first nearly two months of the year, it was looking like 2026 might be the year when things finally turned around for a housing market that has been stuck at roughly 4 million existing home sales since 2023. “We really felt the breeze behind us at the beginning of the year and when the war started that changed,” Mike Pappas, the CEO of The Keyes Company and Illustrated Properties, told HousingWire. The war he’s talking about, of course, is the ongoing conflict in Iran. Prior to the war starting in late February 2026, data from the HousingWire Mortgage Rates Center, which is powered by Polly, shows that the rate for a 30 year conforming mortgage was at 6.23%. As of July 28, rates were at 6.94%, after the war in Iran again began to escalate earlier in the month. According to real estate brokers across the country, the mortgage rate rollercoaster has resulted in a year unlike many anticipated back in January and early February. “It’s going to be another year of roughly 4 million home sales and early this year, that was not going to happen. We were well o...