The analysis shows three new Queensland residents for every home built
Queensland’s searing house price growth would be slashed by almost half if migration was matched to home completions, new analysis shows.
The state now has the sharpest housing squeeze among major capitals, with nearly three new residents for every dwelling built, fuelling calls to curb population growth to head off a deeper affordability crunch.
An analysis of migration data by analyst Kent Lardner shows affordable stock thinning as demand outpaces new supply across the state, with Brisbane’s median house price up 15 per cent in the year to December to $1.075m and units up 20.6 per cent.
It comes as separate research by real estate tech platform FoundIt forecasts Brisbane’s median house price to rise 6.1 per cent in 2026. That figure would slow to 3 to 4 per cent, if migration was aligned with building completions.
Two units under one roof were sold as an investment property in Leichhardt for $1,002,500
Mr Lardner’s modelling puts Queensland’s pressure ratio at about 2.91 people added per new dwelling in the year to 2025Q2, ahead of WA (2.89) and NSW (2.42).
The data shows home completions flatlined across 2025 at roughly 7,900 to 8,200 a quarter after a December spike to 9,715. Around two-thirds were detached houses, with limited lift in the medium-density market where rental demand is strongest.
Migrant arrivals into Queensland totalled about 106,000 over the last four quarters to 2025Q2, just under one-fifth of the national inflow.
While arrivals aren’t net migration, Mr Lardner said the figures revealed the scale of inflow landing on a slow-to-build system.
Riverview house sold for $805,500
“Australia can be pro‑migration and pro‑growth, while still insisting on basic economic realism,” he said.
“When demand grows faster than supply, the adjustment is not moral – it is mechanical: higher prices, higher rents, and fewer affordable options.”
FoundIt’s analysis backed the imbalance: migration has trended higher since 2016 while dwelling completions declined from earlier peaks, with price growth persisting despite higher interest rates.
“Affordable bands bear the brunt of excess demand,” FoundIt co-founder Angus Ferguson said.
“Unless one of two things happens: Migration growth moderates, or dwelling completions accelerate materially, the vice tightens further.”
Across Greater Brisbane, just 3.2 per cent of properties were priced at or below $500,000, while 28.5 per cent were below $750,000, intensifying stress in entry‑level suburbs and rentals.
SOLD: Eagleby, $936,000
FoundIt’s Brisbane risk map points to the outer, working‑class corridors as the most exposed:
Woodridge: house prices up 14 per cent to a $740,000 median; average household income $1,199 a week; rent affordability 46 per cent; buy affordability beyond 12 years; 60 per cent of households renting.
Kingston: up 10 per cent to $737,000; rent affordability 42 per cent; buy affordability close to 11 years.
Eagleby: up 10 per cent to $745,000; rent affordability 45 per cent; buy affordability above 11 years.
Riverview (Ipswich): up 19 per cent to $680,000; rent affordability 40 per cent; average income $1,262 a week.
Leichhardt–One Mile: up 18 per cent to $685,000; rent affordability 37 per cent; more than half of households renting.
“These are…Brisbane’s affordability gateways — the places families move when the inner ring becomes unreachable,” Mr Ferguson said.
“If demand remains elevated and supply remains constrained, these corridors will contine to reprice, and Brisbane’s last affordable escape valves may close faster than many expect.”
Mr Lardner said migration levels were yet to balance out following their post-COVID spike. Nationally, the pressure ratio sat around 1.74 people per new dwelling just before the pandemic in 2019Q2, spiking to about 3.82 post‑reopening in 2023Q3, and remaining elevated near 2.42 (2025Q2).
Annualised migrant arrivals of about 568,370 in the latest year equated to about 3.27 arrivals per new dwelling. Interest rates and credit conditions also played a role.
Mr Lardner pointed to Canada and New Zealand as examples of countries which had adopted policies of “absorptive capacity” in order to connect migration to housing.
SOLD: $830,000, Kingston
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Canada’s real house price index fell 7.1 per cent between 2024Q1 and 2025Q3, roughly 26.9 per cent below its 2022Q1 peak, after flagging targets to reduce temporary resident pressure.
In New Zealand, house prices fell 4.7 per cent between 2024Q2 and 2025Q3, sitting around 26.9 per cent below the 2021Q4 peak, on the back of tightened migration after labelling net inflows “unsustainable”.
“Australia doesn’t need to copy their politics. It needs to copy their willingness to align population settings with housing delivery capacity — before the market keeps doing the rationing for us,” Mr Lardner said.
FoundIt said these examples show that “when migration growth slowed, housing markets did not crash – but growth moderated, particularly at the entry and rental end.”
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