Nearly $50k wiped from house prices

1 day ago 1

Sophie Foster

Updated 18 Jun 2026, 10:35am

First published 18 Jun 2026, 5:00am

A major disparity has opened up between those winning and losing when it comes to home values this year according to the latest realestate.com.au forecast.

A shock forecast has tipped nearly $50,000 wiped from median house prices in major capitals by year’s end – despite absorbing the biggest housing shake-up in a generation.

The figures show the market is proving far more resilient than many feared – two capitals are surging while the hardest-hit cities are absorbing far less damage than the economic pressure warranted.

MORE: Shock as big banks name dates when interest rate cuts begin

Melbourne is set to be the biggest loser this year.

The realestate.com.au Property Outlook Report, released Thursday, tips the worst-affected capitals to finish 2026 at -3 per cent and -4 per cent – figures that, applied to PropTrack’s December 2025 median house prices, translate to indicative losses of nearly $48,720 and $40,480.

Based on rough calculations applying REA’s 2026 forecasts to PropTrack’s December 2025 median house prices, Perth homeowners are looking at an indicative gain of around $82,720 on a median house by year’s end – while Sydney homeowners face an indicative loss of nearly $48,720 on the same basis.

That puts the gap between the best and worst performing capitals at more than $131,000 on those same indicative figures – with Brisbane up an indicative $58,350, Adelaide $49,150 and Hobart $45,840 rounding out the winners, and Melbourne down an indicative $40,480 alongside Sydney.

Economic pressure has seen major shifts in forecasts for housing values this year.

At the start of 2026, PropTrack forecast those same markets would grow between 5 and 7 per cent for the full year, while KPMG put one at 5.8 per cent growth and the other at 6.6 per cent.

While the reversal is real, the scale of the damage is far smaller than the level of economic pressure that caused it — including three consecutive rate hikes from the Reserve Bank which drove falls for three consecutive months in Sydney and Melbourne, with a further hike on the table for the second half of the year.

The Albanese government’s changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax – the biggest overhaul of housing investment rules in a generation – are estimated to slow price growth by a further two percentage points in both 2026 and 2027.

Sydney is expected to see prices retreat but by a lesser percentage than Melbourne’s backslide.

In a further sting, Melbourne’s 4 per cent fall would push its year end median house price below $1 million for the first time in years – to sit below Adelaide’s projection – and making it the second cheapest state capital in the country.

The good news for homeowners is that the end of 2026 will herald a fresh national recovery in prices, with realestate.com.au forecasting combined capital city prices to grow 5.5 per cent in 2027.

Melbourne, the hardest-hit capital, is forecast to bounce back 6 per cent after its 2026 falls, while Perth and Hobart are both tipped to grow 7 per cent in 2027, Brisbane 6 per cent, Sydney 4 per cent and Adelaide 4 per cent.

Feedback Icon