Toronto real estate demand faces a new headwind—a shrinking population. Statistics Canada (StatCan) estimates the population of the Toronto CMA contracted in 2025, marking the only non-pandemic contraction in the region’s history. Young adults are fleeing to other provinces (or countries), leaving fewer families behind. The result is a stark demographic flip, where 1 in 6 residents are seniors, outnumbering children. Though we give the kids 1:1 odds in a fight.
Toronto Population Falls As Young Adults Seek Greener Pastures
Greater Toronto has never seen its population stagnate like this, ex-pandemic. The population estimate slipped to 7.11 million in 2025, down a minor 0.01% (-1k people). Not much, but it’s the first decline in the region’s history and likely to accelerate as StatCan estimates are taken as of July 1st of each year. Immigration changes didn’t create a national pullback until Q3, meaning the sharpest drop is already here—but won’t be reported until next year.
However, slowing immigration isn’t the only reason behind the region’s pullback. Interprovincial migration data shows a massive outflow of young adults from the province to more affordable regions, such as Alberta and Nova Scotia. This trend is further reinforced by Toronto’s aging population and composition shift.
Toronto’s Aging Like It Works 5 Side Hustles to Pay The Rent
Greater Toronto is aging faster than a young professional who just spent over a half-mill on a 300 sq. ft. apartment. The region’s average age surged 0.4 points to 40.8 years old, marking the sharpest climb in modern records (and likely forever) to set a record high. Measured by the median, the region didn’t fare much better, climbing 0.6 points to 38.8 years, the highest since 2022 and 0.1 points higher than 2019.
Toronto Sees Working-Age Population Shrink, Seniors Boom
Toronto CMA: Change in working-age population (15 to 64), number of people.
Source: Statistics Canada; Better Dwelling.
The minor decline conceals a much bigger problem: a demographic shift. The working-age population (15 to 64) fell 0.85% (-42.5k people) to 4.94 million in 2025, in contrast to the 0.42% national growth. The setup for this trend going forward is even more disturbing.
A key ratio when analyzing an economy is the ratio of new workforce entrants (age 20 to 24) to exits (60 to 64). Entrants, who are soon-to-be first-time home buyers and about to enter family formation years—need to outpace lost experience and maintain productivity. When they don’t, it signals economic drag ahead.
Entrants fell 4.6% (-25.6k) to 557.6k in 2025, while exits climbed 1.4% (+5.9k) to 439.7k. Even with temporary residents inflating the near-term count, the ratio is approaching critical levels.
The interprovincial migration trend worsens the issue. Early career adults are highly mobile, and more likely to move to establish a family or chase better career opportunities. Older workers are, well, too old for that sh*t, and more likely to go down with the ship.
More Seniors Than Kids? Toronto Faces An Economic & Demographic Disaster
Toronto CMA: Population of children (0-14) vs seniors (65+).
Source: Statistics Canada; Better Dwelling.
The 14-and-under population fell 0.4% (-3.6k) to 987.5k in 2025, sitting 2.3% (-23.2k) below the pre-pandemic 2019 high. Despite a slight recovery in the last year and the region’s general boom, the population of children this age is roughly the same as it was in 2011.
Meanwhile, the 65+ population surged 4.0% (+45.1k) to 1.18 million, representing over 1 in 6 residents. Now at 1.2 seniors per child, Toronto has seen its senior population surge 14.1% (+146.4k) since 2021. Returning to the destabilizing immigration targets may be the first reaction of many policymakers, but it only temporarily improves the short-term optics while creating a bigger dependency issue.
Unless immigrants are orphans planning to toil in the data mines with no hopes or dreams of a family, they create their own dependencies. They’ll see the same opportunities and problems driving existing young adults away, and migrate as well.
In the meantime, the region faces a growing fiscal and economic drag as its tax base and labour force shrink relative to costs and dependencies. Correcting course right now would still take decades to crawl out of this dependency deficit, which doesn’t speak well for the region’s real estate market anytime soon.
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