Hawks Lorie Logan and Beth Hammack run the Fed for now 

Today the Federal Reserve decided not to hike rates, but the hawks have moved their chess pieces: three Fed members wanted to hike rates at this meeting, which means September is in play for the first rate hike after the cut cycle ended. However, the long end of the bond market has already done the early heavy lifting for the Fed as hawks Beth Hammack and Lorie Logan won today and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh did a lot of gibberish talking. Now, with where the 10-year yield and 30-year yield are today, we know two things. First, we have to wait for the conflict to end in order to focus more on economic data, jobs and inflation. Second, if the conflict is over and jobs and inflation get softer, we might get a hold on a rate hike in September. From the FOMC statement: “The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 9 – 3 vote: “The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate. The Committee is continuing its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system. “Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owe...