Why 2026 foreclosure gains are not a housing crash signal

The quarterly New York Fed foreclosure data came out for Q2, and once again — to the surprise of many doomers — the index fell slightly, still below 2019 levels. Not only that, but this week’s existing home sales report also showed housing inventory down year over year and sales slightly higher, with prices up 2.0% year over year, something that would be impossible if we had a surge of foreclosures coming to the market. I know we get headlines every month or quarter with huge percentage increases in foreclosure data, but today I wanted I share a simple way for people to understand when foreclosures will become an issue. I also discussed this topic on today’s episode of the HousingWire Daily podcast. Foreclosure data One of the things I’ve stressed when I talk at events this year is that we have had many recessions post-WWII but only one foreclosure crisis. That foreclosure crisis started with a massive credit boom from 2002-2005, and then a credit bust. That credit bust pushed foreclosures up, according to New York Fed data, in 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008. Then, the Great Recession happened. As you can see, none of that is happening now — we aren’t even back to 2019 levels yet, and i...