What the mountain-luxury market says about housing demand

The housing story most people are telling right now is a rate story. Rates went up, affordability compressed, volume fell, and everyone is waiting on the Fed to loosen the knot. That story is true for most of the country. It is not the whole map. I sell real estate in Summit County, Colorado, in Breckenridge and the resort towns around it, and from where I sit there are two housing markets in this state moving in opposite directions. Why they diverge says something useful about where housing demand actually comes from, and it is not only rates. The rate-sensitive market is the one everyone models. On the Front Range, in Denver and Colorado Springs, a large share of buyers need a mortgage, and their purchasing power moves inversely with the 10-year yield. When money gets expensive, demand cools, price growth flattens and inventory sits. Standard stuff. The resort market runs on different fuel Up here, a meaningful share of luxury purchases close in cash and the buyers are disproportionately out-of-state second-home owners, not primary-residence buyers stretching to qualify. When the buyer is wiring the purchase price, the mortgage rate is a footnote. What moves that buyer is differe...