What’s next for housing: 7%, 8% or 9% mortgage rates?

Halloween is coming early for the housing market. The bond market has been very scary for weeks now, but last week was so wild that we can actually talk about what is more likely now: mortgage rates at 7%, 8% or 9%? Let’s take a drive down to scary-rate lane, where Chuckie will be our driver, Jason will be sitting in the back seat and Freddy Krueger will be waiting for us to fall asleep. 10-year yield and mortgage rates In the 2026 HousingWire forecast, I anticipated the following ranges: Mortgage rates between 5.75% and 6.75% The 10-year yield fluctuating between 3.80% and 4.60% I believe two events have made the bond market act more wildly than normal: First, the MOU deal with Iran fell apart, and we started attacking Iran during market hours. Second, President Trump said we won’t get a deal with Iran until after the midterms. With no sign of the Iran conflict ending, the bond market has acted up, even as we get more oil through the Strait of Hormuz. Let’s look at the possibility of each rate level. 7% mortgage rates The case for 7% rates is very simple: the conflict ends and Trade War 2.0 doesn’t get worse — those two things alone can drive the 10-year yield and mortgage rates b...