Time for your cheat sheet on this week’s top stories.
Canadian Real Estate
Canadian Long-Term Unemployment At ’90s Levels, 6 Months To Find A Job
Canadians may want to put aside more savings, just in case of job market disruption. Nearly 1.5 million people were unemployed in January, while job vacancies continue to grind lower. The combination has pushed the average duration of unemployment to 22.7 weeks (about 6 months). And that’s before accounting for the more than 1 in 4 jobless Canadians now considered long-term unemployed, making this the worst non-pandemic job market since the 1990s. As policymakers urge workforce reductions and dramatic economic restructuring, downside risks are building—not easing.
Canada’s Productivity Crisis Is The Norm, AI Gains Are Overhyped: BMO
Two years ago, Bank of Canada (BoC) Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers called Canada’s productivity slump a national crisis. This week, she doubled down—urging businesses to embrace AI, likening its potential to the internet’s productivity boom. It sounds intuitive, but the evidence disagrees, according to BMO Capital Markets, which countered with data showing productivity has been declining for decades, suggesting weak growth is the norm. The internet-era bump faded as quickly as it appeared, and BMO sees AI doing the same, but at a smaller scale.
The Bank of Canada’s Economy: Things Get Worse, Then You Die
BoC Governor Tiff Macklem declared the old economy dead, explaining the slowdown is structural—not cyclical. Structural shifts are slow and painful, often taking decades to play out, which he openly acknowledged. He further noted that U.S. trade is over, urging firms to re-route supply chains while pitching them on AI investments to boost productivity. The pitch appears to be an attempt to use fear as a policy tool, hoping to stimulate investments without further rate cuts. Unfortunately, it was most likely counterproductive, as it only reinforces the BoC research showing businesses are pulling back investment due to uncertainty. A new industrial revolution and rewiring the old economy are multi-decade bets that most people won’t live to see the outcome.
Nova Scotia Launches Predatory 2% Down Payment Scheme As Prices Plunge
The Government of Nova Scotia wants to “help” first-time buyers by guaranteeing mortgages with as little as 2% down. After prices surged 84.5% in just two years, it may sound supportive. But the timing matters: the program arrives as demand dries up and provincial prices abruptly post the largest drop in Canada. Weak sales and falling demand are on a collision course with a wave of investor-owned supply under construction. That makes the policy look less like affordability relief and more like a liquidity backstop, transferring potential losses from investors to end users.
Canadian Real Estate Supply Keeps Prices On A “Downtrend”: RBC
RBC warns Canada’s real estate downturn isn’t over, with supply continuing to outpace demand. The bank points to a sharp decline in sales in major markets like Toronto and Vancouver, where prices have resumed a downturn. Calgary is holding up better, but faces the same problem of a large pipeline of homes already under construction. With the typical busy spring market approaching, the signals point to further softening—not firming.
Toronto Real Estate
More Canes Than Cribs: Toronto Population Falls, More Seniors Than Kids
Toronto real estate faces a problem it hasn’t encountered before: a shrinking population. The Toronto CMA posted its first-ever drop in 2025, tiny in contrast to its 7.11 million residents. The small decline looks much more significant when examining the composition shift: The working-age population (15 to 64) fell 0.85% (-42,500 people), while seniors continue to outpace children 1.2 to 1. The outflow of prime-aged workers to start families in more affordable regions like Alberta has tilted the region toward higher dependency and fewer income earners to support the base.
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