This is why the US doesn’t have a housing shortage

Housing starts missed estimates in July, which isn’t shocking given what is happening with rates lately, but the one takeaway from this report is that we don’t have a housing shortage in America, so stop expecting housing construction to bring meaningful supply to the market. I’ve always had a different approach to this topic than others, but hopefully today we can finally let this narrative go because until demand starts growing again, nothing is happening here, nor should it. We should be grateful the builders had extra profit margins to pay down rates over the last few years, or this data would be worse than it is today. From Census: Housing Starts: Privately-owned housing starts in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,239,000. This is 12.4 percent (±9.5 percent) below the revised June estimate of 1,415,000 and is 13.5 percent (±11.0 percent) below the July 2025 rate of 1,432,000. Single-family housing starts in July were at a rate of 808,000; this is 9.9 percent (±10.4 percent)* below the revised June figure of 897,000. The July rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 421,000. As the chart below shows, little has changed here for years and housing...