The Fed’s Favorite Inflation Metric Just Hit 3%—Cooling Urgency for Rate Hike

A key inflation gauge closely tracked by the Federal Reserve cooled more than anticipated last month even as consumer spending rose, casting doubt on further interest rate hikes this year. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose 3% in August compared to a year ago and was up 0.2% month over month, the Department of Commerce reported Wednesday.Both figures were lower than economists' forecasts of 3.3% and 0.3%, respectively. Central bank's policymakers monitor core PCE to assess progress toward the Fed's 2% annual inflation target.Meanwhile, headline PCE index measuring overall consumer prices increased 0.3% in August from July and was up 3.4% compared to last year, also coming in below economists' predictions. Despite rising prices, Americans went on a buying spree in August. Inflation-adjusted spending surged 0.6% in August, up from 0.1% in July, marking the fastest month-over-month acceleration since March 2025. What this means for the FedFinancial markets rallied Wednesday in response to the better-than-anticipated PCE print, dialing back expectations for a second interest rate increase this year.Bond markets...