‘Silver tsunami’ set to free up 13.9 million homes, but first-time buyers will see limited help

Aging baby boomer and Silent Generation homeowners are expected to free up 13.9 million homes over the next decade. That’s a 34% increase from the past 10 years, but most of that supply will encompass family-sized and larger properties, not starter homes. An analysis published Monday by Realtor.com projects that owner-occupied homes held by boomers and the Silent Generation will fall from an estimated 36.7 million in 2026 to 22.8 million by 2036. That net decline of 13.9 million homes, or roughly 1.39 million per year, reflects what some analysts have dubbed a “silver tsunami” as older Americans die, move into institutional care, consolidate households or shift into rentals. For housing professionals, the study underscores a key point: More inventory is coming, but its timing, location and size mix mean it will not, by itself, erase the nation’s estimated 4 million shortage of homes, especially at the entry level. More homes than last decade, and a shifting source Realtor.com estimates that older households released roughly 8 million homes over the past decade. The expected 13.9 million to be released over the next 10 years represents 5.9 million more homes, equating to a 74% incre...