New York City Lost 150,000 Kids in 4 Years as Parents Fled to the Suburbs and Beyond

New York City parents are fleeing the big city—and taking their kids with them. The Big Apple lost an astonishing 150,000 children (and their parents) in the four years after 2020, a nearly 9% drop, according to a new analysis.

To put that into perspective, the city's child-aged population decline during the COVID-19 pandemic years was more than three times the drop seen in the entire preceding decade.

"The reason New York is losing kids is migration," housing market strategist and founder of Home Economics Aziz Sunderji wrote in his Substack, where he detailed U.S. Census Bureau data revealing the trend. "Families are fleeing—primarily to the suburbs."

Sunderji broke down the numbers this way: The most popular destination for these migrating families is Nassau County, on Long Island, which absorbed nearly 1 in 10 kids who left the city.

Westchester, NY, took 5% of the families. Fairfield County, CT, and Suffolk County, NY, each captured roughly 3.5%. The three nearest New Jersey counties (Bergen, Hudson, and Essex) absorbed 3% each. Then the remaining smaller New York metro area suburbs collectively captured 9%.

However, most families moved outside of commuting distance entirely. Some 60% of kids were taken far afield to places such as Miami-Dade County, FL (3.0% of all New York City kid emigrants), Berks County, PA (the Reading area with 2.3%), and Durham County, NC (2.0%).

On the whole, 236,000 children were lost to domestic out-migration, far exceeding a 72,000 gain of children from international migration into the city.

So, why are parents grabbing their kids and fleeing New York City for the burbs?

The top two reasons by far, according to a 2026 U.S. Census Bureau survey, were "better housing" and "wanted to own." Another survey, this one from the New York City Department of Education, cited "a better environment to raise kids" (64%), "concerns about schools" (50%), "more housing space" (50%), and "concerns about crime" (42%).

"The data suggests that families are leaving cities not pushed out by affordability, but lured by the attraction of the suburbs—particularly the plentiful space they offer," concludes Sunderji.

What agents are seeing on the ground

This comes as no surprise to real estate brokers, who have been seeing this steady migration for years.

Jaclyn Picarillo, who's been selling in the hot markets of Fairfield County, such as Greenwich, Fairfield, and New Canaan, for 25 years, tells Realtor.com that "once people have that third child," they are forced to leave the city because they can't find something in their budget that will fit their growing family.

"You might be able to squeeze in two, but not three," she says of typical city apartments. "That's what I'm seeing. People who've gone into three or four kids, they're priced out of the city."

While her latest listing—a $5.75 million new-build house in Fairfield, CT—is hardly cheap, the four bedrooms, 4.5 baths, and large fenced yard with in-ground pool are far more than one can get for the same price in most areas of the city.

Another lure of the suburb is the quality of the public schools. Whether true or not, there is the perception that schools are better outside of the city.

"They don't want to pay for private schools, necessarily," says Picarillo of city dwellers with kids.

A private school can easily cost tens of thousands of dollars per year. Meanwhile, a family could put that money toward property taxes and get a house with plenty of space and a backyard to boot.

Picarillo ticks off other family-friendly amenities in the county: walkability to downtown areas, beach access, a yard and more privacy, a community vibe, and safety. Not to mention, it is still commutable to the city by car, Amtrak, or Metro-North.

"You can come home, and your kids are playing in the street or the yard," she says. "They want that lifestyle."

Maria Rebuth-Vermeulen of Signature Premier Properties in Nassau County says she is seeing a lot of city families who moved away for their careers but are now returning to the fold to raise their families. The county's location on the Long Island Rail Road means it's still commutable to the city.

"It was different during COVID," she tells Realtor.com. "Then, I would see people from a lot of different areas coming in. But now, I'm seeing people who grew up here. Now, they want to raise their families here and be near the grandparents. A lot of grandparents are helping out with the children, supplementing childcare.

"They love the suburban lifestyle here," she adds. "I definitely see the young people coming back. They appreciate what they had" growing up.

Rebuth-Vermeulen currently represents a five-bedroom "storybook Cape Cod" in the Bar Harbor neighborhood of Massapequa Park. The somewhat modest house—2,220 square feet on a 7,501-square-foot lot built in 1954—runs a hefty $1.3 million.

Nassau County has a median list price of $899,000, a near 17% increase from last year, according to Realtor.com® data.

"They're paying big money," she says of the adult "kids" moving back into town. "It's not like you get a tremendous piece of land and brand-new [build]. It's about convenience and being near family."