New homebuilder survey: Where builders see risk and opportunity in the second half of 2026

Homebuilding executives began 2026 facing a difficult combination of elevated mortgage rates, affordability constraints and demand uncertainty. Now halfway through the year, the outlook has become more cautious. A follow-up survey of 127 senior executives conducted by Builder Advisor Group and Avila Real Estate Capital shows that confidence has cooled since January. Meanwhile, more builders anticipate higher construction and lot costs even with the expectation that home prices and sales pace remain relatively flat. Together, the findings from the Homebuilder Executive Outlook Survey point to a market in which builders cannot necessarily rely on price appreciation or stronger demand to offset rising expenses. Instead, homebuilder growth strategies are likely to depend on disciplined operations, sharper market positioning and strategic builder and land acquisitions as evidenced by the increase in M&A activity. Executive confidence cooled sharply in the first half of 2026 The shift in the homebuilder market outlook is most evident in how executives view overall conditions. In January, 45% of respondents expected the 2026 market to be stronger than 2025, but by June, that sentiment...