New home sales muddle through ‘choppy and challenging’ market

New home sales fell slightly less than Wall Street expected in September, but most homebuilders found little to celebrate. In fact, October’s NAHB homebuilder confidence reading, which fell to its lowest level since June 2012, may be a sturdier gauge of where builders expect new home sales trends are headed. Sales volume and prices are both down year over year, and many homebuilders report that sales conditions have, if anything, worsened from summer into fall. However, the silver lining for builders, particularly in oversupplied Sun Belt markets, is that fewer new construction starts have helped them slowly winnow their standing inventory, which still exceeds historical levels. According to U.S. Census Bureau data, sales of newly built single-family homes in September fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 676,000, down 5.3% from a year ago. And so far this year, sales are 2.9% lower than over the same stretch of 2025. “High mortgage rates and economic uncertainty continued to keep potential home buyers on the sidelines and constrain new home sales in September,” noted National Association of Home Builders assistant VP for Forecasting and Analysis Danushka Nanayakkara-Skilli...