How the Iran conflict is impacting housing demand

The housing market was off and growing earlier this year, with lower mortgage rates, and we were poised for our first growth year in many years. In fact, the only thing that impacted the data early on was Winter Storm Fern and holidays. But, as I have always noted, the housing data tends to get better with mortgage rates below 6.64%, heading toward 6%, and tends to get worse when rates go above 6.64% and head toward 7%. Back on March 11, when some people doubted growth because they couldn’t adjust their data models for the snow, I went on CNBC with a simple premise: housing is poised for growth unless the Iran conflict raises mortgage rates. Well, it’s almost September and the conflict is still going on and the Fed has made this conflict one of their hawkish talking points to raise rates, which has given bond traders permission to send rates higher. And, we’ve started another trade war with Canada. So, what has all of this done to housing demand this year? Purchase application data Today the MBA purchase application data came out, which looks out 30-90 days. When mortgage rates were lower, purchase application data posted positive year-over-year data pretty much all year long, up u...