Housing year-over-year comps need context for the rest of 2026

Last year I saw that the housing market was shifting in mid-June and that it would take six to nine months for people to understand what was happening. Sales were about to grow, inventory growth was about to slow down and we had no data whatsoever to even remotely talk about a housing price crash. This was based on the premise, as always with my work, that the housing data tends to improve when mortgage rates get below 6.64% and head toward 6%.Because housing data was improving last year at this time, it’s going to make for some interesting year-over-year comps for the rest of the year, as rates are higher now. Also, last year, Labor Day weekend was Aug. 30-Sept. 1, so this weekend’s tracker report is heavily impacted by comparisons to the 2025 Labor Day data. Purchase application data Purchase application data, which looks out 30-90 days, has shown softness as mortgage rates have risen above 6.64% and stayed there.When rates were below 6.64%, purchase applications were pretty much positive year over year all year long, building off harder comps at the start of the year too. Now, those comps will be hard to beat, especially with rates near 7% for the rest of 2026. Last week, the pu...