Fed Chair Warsh will vote to hike rates if data doesn’t improve

Today, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh gave his much-anticipated Jackson Hole speech, which I previewed in today’s episode of the HousingWire Daily podcast with Editor-in-Chief Sarah Wheeler. My primary take from the speech is that Warsh will vote for a rate hike if inflation data doesn’t improve and labor data is stable.My main concern with Warsh is that at some point the Fed will have enough votes to hike rates, and if he doesn’t go along with them, markets will always see him as a Trump puppet. At that point, markets will look to Beth Hammack as the Fed Chair, which wouldn’t be good for the relationship between the Fed and the markets. For now, after this speech, I believe Warsh will vote for a rate hike if there are enough votes.The market has already priced in rate hikes on the long end, so not much is happening right now; currently, the 10-year yield is at 4.72%. So the question is: where do we go from here? I want us to focus less on Kevin Warsh and the Fed and more on what actually matters for rates. 1. The Iran conflict has to come to an end or at least not get worse The Fed hawks have made the Iran conflict a very big talking point of being hawkish, and it’s still going on, so if y...