Canadian Population Underreported, Artificially Improving Job Data: CIBC

Canada’s population decline may just be a distant memory after the data is updated. In June, Statistics Canada’s (StatCan) population estimate contained a stark warning that its data will see an unusually large revision. CIBC economists expect the revision will be large enough to reverse the reported declines and expose a new problem—Canada’s job numbers may be worse than reported, and there’s no longer an excuse for poor economic growth. Canada’s Upcoming Population Revisions Likely Eliminate Decline StatCan reported a quarterly population decline of 55,025 people in Q1 2026, shedding 234,597 people since July 2025. The drop follows immigration caps after the country’s aggressive immigration programs saw its non-permanent residents (NPRs) population more than triple over a few years. At its peak, NPRs represented nearly 1 in 12 people in Canada. StatCan itself says the revisions are expected to start in September and will be larger than usual. CIBC economists warn that StatCan’s methodology counts expired permits as outflows. They argue that many of those with now-expired permits legally stayed in the country, obtaining another form of legal temporary status. “The full scope of th...