How can you tell if a suburb is on the rise? Just follow the trail of a new Costco or Bunnings megastore.
As big-box retailers roll out ambitious expansion plans across Australia, their site selections offer a window into the next wave of residential growth by targeting areas where population, housing development and consumer demand are already gathering pace.
Does the arrival of a Costco signal growth for property prices? Picture: Supplied
REA senior economist Anne Flaherty said when these kinds of businesses want to open a new location, they mainly focus on areas that already have highly established residential populations or are projected to see strong growth in the future.
“You also tend to find them in areas with lots of new homeowners focusing on renovations or DIY projects, because when people move into a new property, they're very likely to be doing a lot of trips to Bunnings in that first year," Ms Flaherty said.
While it’s difficult to quantify the direct impact on property prices, Ms Flaherty said the arrival of big-box retailers can enhance a suburb’s appeal as destination drawcards.
“People will travel to visit a Bunnings or a Costco, and their arrival can signal a boost for other retailers in the area. If people are driving in, they’re often more likely to visit nearby businesses as well," she said.
"It may not be a deciding factor when purchasing a home, but having these retailers close by is most definitely a positive.”
Bunnings megastore backs growth in Sydney's north
As Bunnings continues to expand its footprint in both regional and metro areas, last December the hardware chain opened its largest store in the country - a mammoth five-storey warehouse in Frenchs Forest delivered at a cost of $48 million.
The first NSW location to feature three levels of retail (the remaining two are car parking), the Northern Beaches megastore spans more than 20,000 square metres (by contrast, a typical Bunnings store is around 8,000 square metres). It also includes a café, playground, outdoor garden centre and 400-vehicle capacity carpark.
The new Bunnings megastore in Frenchs Forest services the entire Northern Beaches region. Picture: Bunnings
Ray White’s head of research Vanessa Rader said a store of that scale doesn't just benefit Frenchs Forest, but the entire Northern Beaches, which is a vast catchment.
"It's a very insular market too - residents there won't travel further afield if they don't have to,” Ms Rader said.
“A project of this size really underscores the strength and ongoing growth of the Northern Beaches market.”
Local agents say the recent opening of the Frenchs Forest Bunnings reflects confidence in the area's future. Picture: realestate.com.au
Cunninghams sales agent James Leith agrees, noting the arrival of a Bunnings megastore reflects growing confidence in the area.
“It certainly helps when we’re bringing properties to market, because it gives a clear indication of where The Forest and broader Northern Beaches district is heading over the next decade,” Mr Leith told realestate.com.au.
“We’re seeing strong demand from affluent buyers moving into the area and undertaking knockdown-rebuilds, but also tradespeople and young families purchasing entry-level homes and renovating themselves, which makes the Frenchs Forest Bunnings a pretty strategic addition
Costco targets boom regions
Costco is also growing its portfolio across the country. The US discount retailer plans to open 20 new stores in just five years and has set its sights on a number of emerging growth corridors.
Several major projects are already underway, including in Melbourne’s southeast, where a $74 million warehouse and adjoining fuel station is planned for Pakenham, expected to open in 2027.
Costco last year opened a warehouse and 38-pump fuel station in Ardeer, 15km west of the Melbourne CBD. Picture: Supplied
The investment aligns with the area’s rapid growth, with the Pakenham East master planned community currently under construction. Once complete, it will deliver more than 7,000 homes, new schools, two train stations and a town centre to support a population of around 23,000.
Retail expert Gary Mortimer said Costco’s decision to target Pakenham “makes perfect sense.”
“Judging from their strategy so far, Costco is focusing on growth suburbs where there will be new housing, suburban developments or planned communities. The more homes being built means there are more mouths to feed and more furniture and household goods to be sold.”
A new Costco warehouse and fuel station is also slated for Brisbane Airport, adjacent to Eagle Farm, with completion expected by late 2026.
Big-box retailers like Costco and Bunnings require large sites, often pushing them to rapidly growing outer city regions. Picture: realcommercial.com.au
As Brisbane’s growth pushes further towards the city’s outer edges, Eagle Farm is emerging as one of the next suburbs to watch. It was recently tipped to join Australia’s million-dollar club, with a median house price of $978,000 in June 2025.
Chrese Morley of McGrath Ascot said the council had recently released a significant parcel of land in Eagle Farm for redevelopment, with around 3,000 new homes planned.
“So any new retail infrastructure that can improve convenience for time-poor families in Brisbane’s north-east is a major positive," Ms Morley said.
“If you look at neighbouring suburbs like Hendra, which has seen 15% growth over the past 12 months, it makes sense that demand for inner-city living is starting to spill into Eagle Farm, which has historically been one of Brisbane’s key commercial hubs."
Costco’s expansion is also extending into Western Australia, with the US retailer set to become the anchor tenant of the $33 million Alkimos Central Home X Trade Hub in Perth’s northern suburbs.
Costco's expansion plans favour high growth corridors with strong residential development activity and large industrial sites. Picture: Getty Images
Due to open in 2027, it will be the state’s third Costco, joining the warehouse that opened at Perth Airport in 2020 and the Casuarina site in Perth’s south from 2022.
Like Eagle Farm in Brisbane, Alkimos is experiencing rapid growth, with PropTrack data showing the coastal suburb recorded 15.3% median house price growth over the past 12 months.
“That’s a huge amount of growth,” Ms Rader said. “Perth has recorded some of the strongest price gains in the country in recent years and there is still lots of available land, particularly along that northern corridor. And Costco sites need plenty of land.”
Brett White of REMAX Extreme in Currambine said northwest Perth has been maturing steadily over the past decade.
“The City of Wanneroo has been one of the fastest-growing council areas because it offers a coastal lifestyle and relative affordability, which has attracted both young families and retirees looking to downsize,” he said.
Costco sells everything from giant teddybears to 100-inch televisions to fresh food. Picture: Supplied
That combination of strong population growth and available land is critical to Costco’s expansion strategy.
In general, the retailer typically requires significantly larger sites than Bunnings - around 14,000sqm compared to 8,000sqm - which naturally pushes it towards outer suburban growth corridors, said Mr Mortimer.
“It’s also why expansion in Australia has been relatively slow, as those high-growth areas still need to offer land at the right scale.”
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