Why the 2026 mortgage layoff cycle looks different 

Brett Ludden, managing director and head of mortgage solutions at Milliman, has seen a shift in mortgage lenders’ expectations since the beginning of the year. Following a period of 30-year fixed mortgage rates in the low 6s and a brief refinance rally in the first few months of 2026, lenders remained optimistic about the rest of the year. “You probably heard a lot of lenders were gearing up for finally seeing rates drop, and they hired,” Ludden told HousingWire. But the U.S. war in Iran, its subsequent impact on consumer prices and the Federal Reserve keeping its benchmark rate higher for longer soon brought the party to an end. Rates are now closer to 7%. “I’ve heard multiple lenders tell me they can do 40% more volume without adding any people right now; all they need to add is maybe a funder or a post-closer,” Ludden said. “In my mind, as a strategic adviser, my question is: ‘Why wouldn’t you be cutting to get as lean as you can?’ Because the expectations today are very different than they were in January. A lot of lenders are slowly coming to that realization.” So far in 2026, the mortgage industry has seen a few confirmations of layoffs, companies adjusting their workforces d...