Property prices in Brisbane are predicted to soar up to 10 per cent for houses and 18 per cent for units over the next year as the city bucks the national trend of plummeting values due to its chronic housing shortage.
A shock report released today reveals Brisbane’s market is continuing to rise – despite the federal government’s controversial tax changes and three interest rate rises – which have seen prices in Melbourne and Sydney already drop dramatically.
Aerial view of Brisbane.
The PRD Smart Moves: Capital Cities Edition 1st Half 2026 report, released today, revealed Brisbane’s market was continuing to rise.
“Unlike Sydney and Melbourne, where price growth is beginning to stabilise, Brisbane’s upward pressure on prices is expected to persist,” said PRD chief economist Dr Diaswati Mardiasmo.
“Strong demand is driving house sales higher, while limited unit supply pushes prices even faster.”
Aerial view over Brisbane river and South Brisbane. Picture Lachie Millard
Brisbane house prices are up 14 per cent to $1.15m while units were $750,000, up 23 per cent over 12 months.
Dr Mardiasmo predicted the house median to jump 8 to 10 per cent over the next 12 months with units surging 16 to 18 per cent.
“The reason being is last year we saw Brisbane was still growing at 18 to 19 per cent, now it’s at 14 per cent, so I’m taking it four to five per cent down,” she said.
“The prices will grow slower but not as slow as we’d like it to be.”
The shock prediction comes on the back a broader national slowdown with auction clearance rates falling to 47.4 per cent, the lowest clearance rate nationally since the spread of Covid-19 in April 2020.
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PRD chief economist Dr Diaswati “Asti” Mardiasmo.
Market sentiment has also taken a dive because of the Federal Government’s restructured capital gains tax discount and the removal of negative gearing for existing residential property.
But Dr Mardiasmo said Brisbane’s lack of stock would actually help retain property values moving forward.
“With Brisbane that means, if there’s another one or two cash rate hikes in 2026, then that really deep under supply is still enough to keep Brisbane’s prices going,” she said.
“Even if it’s not as fast as 2024 or 2025, there’s still enough under supply there to keep that price growth going and carry us through a higher cash rate hike periods.”
Aerial view over Brisbane river and South Brisbane. Picture Lachie Millard
The report revealed Brisbane’s property market was defined by a widening supply gap, with demand for houses outpacing what’s being built.
“With $22.7b in new developments (in Brisbane), but very few new houses, supply is struggling to keep up, making competition fierce and timing critical for buyers and sellers alike,” said Dr Mardiasmo.
“Where just 275 new houses are planned against more than 25,000 annual sales, there’s a clear mismatch between demand and available stock.”
Aerial view of Brisbane.
Brisbane investors would be the ultimate losers with the Federal Government’s proposed tax changes forcing investors to spend more.
“A lot more investors will have to unfortunately look towards the more premium suburbs where they have new builds coming as opposed to the cheaper suburbs,” she said.
“We are going to have less and less affordability in Brisbane for investors.
“Buyers will have to make a difficult choice and work out if negative gearing is something they really need to still be able to have a good return on their investment.”
14 Kelvin Street, Wavell Heights.
The imbalance was driving “sustained price growth” and creating urgency for buyers while offering investors and existing homeowners the benefit of a resilient rental market, the report stated.
“While development is heavily skewed, with 14,000 plus new units and over 16,000 residential lots, intense buyer demand and a tight vacancy rate of 0.8 per cent are keeping competition high and availability low.”
“At the same time, rental yields of around 2.9 per cent for houses and 3.7 per cent for units highlight steady returns despite rising prices.
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