The battleground has spilt over from the footy field to the housing market as the Maroons and Blues prepare to face off in this week’s series decider.
The 2025 property State of Origin is just as tightly contested, with experts divided on whether Queensland’s sizzling short-term gains trump New South Wales’ long-haul game.
Property adviser Darragh Heard, of Tallpopie, said the real estate rule of play looked vastly different for each of the two states.
“It’s a thriller. NSW is leading in supply, but Queensland tactics are sharp,” Ms Heard said.
The Blues and Maroons head into a heated final clash after Queensland’s hard-fought Game 2 victory
She said NSW dominated for infill development and in the apartment market, while Queensland had more greenfield sites fuelling a wave of new house-and-land packages.
“Queensland pulls some hat tricks,” she said — not unlike the Maroons’ nailbiting 26-24 Game 2 on-field victory.
“Between Brisbane and the Gold Coast, the state provides buyers with such contrast of lifestyle choice (urban or coast) larger land, and much more affordable than NSW.”
NSW may have more infrastructure on the board, but the Sunshine State is scoring points in converting opportunity faster, Ms Heard said.
Queensland reigns for greenfield sites
“Queensland is kicking 40/20s and getting repeat sets to attack, whereas NSW is stuck in their own 20m line.”
She said Queensland’s more streamlined development process also put it ahead in the housing game.
“The tangible opportunity and speed to market is supported by a model where developers need to just ‘adhere’, but in NSW developers have to ‘seek permission’. The coaches and union are their worst enemy.”
But Queensland’s pace isn’t just for show — it’s racking up points on the scoreboard too, according to mortgage broker Brett Sutton, of Two Red Shoes.
Infield development in Sydney is skewed towards apartments
“Queensland is sprinting ahead in 2025, with Brisbane’s median house price now topping $1.17m and units up a staggering 18.5 per cent year-on-year,” Mr Sutton said.
Affordability, lifestyle migration, and heavy infrastructure spending were the state’s big drivers.
“Suburbs like Deeragun, Crestmead, and Kingston are still under $500,000 yet delivering 20-36 per cent annual growth,” Mr Sutton said.
“Regional stars like Toowoomba, Gladstone, and Mackay are thriving.”
But Mr Sutton isn’t handing Queensland the trophy just yet.
“Queensland takes the win on short-term performance as its growth metrics are hard to ignore. “But if we’re talking fundamentals, NSW edges ahead,” he said.
Both states are in the grips of a housing shortage
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While Sydney’s price growth has been more modest — 4 per cent for houses and 1.8 per cent for units — it’s anchored by deeper infrastructure investment, international demand, and global city status.
Regional lifestyle hubs including Orange and Mayfield were also streaking ahead, Mr Sutton said.
“For owner-occupiers and long-term investors, NSW’s fundamentals, stamp duty relief, higher land tax thresholds, and lower property management costs make it a more strategic play.”
“Queensland may be scoring the flashy tried in 2025, while NSW is quietly building a dynasty. And in property, that’s the game that counts.”
Cameron Munster of the Maroons celebrates the team’s last win. Picture: Cameron Spencer/Getty Images
So, while footy pundits draw statelines for this week’s thrilling Origin clash, who wins the investor version comes down to game plan.
If it’s pace, price growth and affordability hitting goals, Queensland is storming down the sideline.
But if you’re playing for stability, policy certainty, and long-term capital gain, NSW could take home the perpetual property cup.
Two Red Shoes mortgage broker Brett Sutton
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