What post-hurricane data in North Carolina could mean for Florida’s recovery

What had previously been a surprisingly mild 2024 hurricane season closed with two devastating storms that hammered Florida and North Carolina.

While assessing the full scale of the damage could still take months, the short-term effects on the two state’s housing markets were immediately visible — the markets came to a complete halt.

In the days right before and after Hurricane Milton battered central Florida, two highly responsive metrics went into free fall. 

Take the Tampa metropolitan area, which was one of the parts of Florida hit most directly by Milton. New home listings stood at 770 on Oct. 11 and have now dropped by a shocking 78.8% to 163.

The state more broadly saw precipitous drops in new pending home sales, and the western coast of Florida experienced the sharpest declines. In the week following the hurricane, new pending home sales in the Port Charlotte area dropped by 70.7%, while Cape Coral (52.7%), Tampa (59.5%) Sarasota (66.7%) also cratered.

It’s anyone’s guess how long it will take the housing markets in those areas to reboot, but data in North Carolina can be instructive for when and to what extent it could happen.

In the Asheville metropolitan area — located in the Western North Carolina region that was hammered the most by Hurricane Helene — new home listings sat at 120 on Sept. 20, then bottomed out at 14 on Oct. 11, an 88.3% fall. However, new listings snapped back sharply to 82 just a week later. Sources told HousingWire that out-of-town investors were among the most interested buyers.

While listings have roared back, new pending home sales in most ares of North Carolina are still down by substantial percentages. Asheville sales remain down by 50%, while Boone (82%), Roanoke Rapids (78%), North Wilkesboro (71%) and Brevard (65%) are down by even more.

These cities are either in the general area of Asheville or are near bodies of water.

While a lot of variables will come into play in Florida’s housing recovery, data from North Carolina suggests it could be awhile before things get back to something resembling normal.