There’s very few Melbourne suburbs where a single person earning $100,000 or less will be able to afford a median-priced house under another interest rate rise.
Victoria is a single interest rate hike away from having fewer than 150 suburbs where a person earning under $100,000 can afford the mortgage on a house.
And just 10 of those areas are located in Melbourne.
Data crunched by financial comparison website Canstar shows if the Reserve Bank raises rates at its meeting next week, or even if they do so in May, it will wipe more than a dozen suburbs off shopping lists for one-income households seeking a median-priced house — even those earning six figures.
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Experts are warning many buyers will have to adjust their home expectations or cut back on lifestyle spending to keep their home dream alive.
According to Canstar, following February’s rate upswing, typically-priced houses in 160 Victorian suburbs and towns remained within reach of a single person earning $100,000 or less in a year, assuming they had a 20 per cent deposit and no dependants.
However, this would shrink to just 145 areas across Victoria if there was another rate increase in 2026.
Rural and regional locations dominated this list, but the few Melbourne suburbs included Kurunjang, Dallas, Wyndham Vale and Wallan.
Melton, with a $520,000 median house price, was the most affordable requiring an average $89,000 single wage to borrow 80 per cent of a home’s value.
This three-bedroom house at 19 Stanmore Cres, Wyndham Vale, is for sale with a $499,000-$548,900 range. The suburb is one of 10 in Melbourne where singles earning $100,000 will be able to afford a median-priced home if rates rise again.
Many singles are being driven to Melbourne’s outer fringes or into smaller homes when looking to buy, as interest rates and typical house prices both rise.
For people on a $100,000 income seeking a median-priced unit, 171 Victorian areas were attainable in February.
This would decrease to 159 areas under a future rate jump.
Canstar’s data insights director Sally Tindall said interest rate hikes had lifted the income needed to service a loan, although rising property prices increased the loan size required in the first place.
“Salary growth, by comparison, has not been able to keep up for many people,” Ms Tindall said.
Australian Bureau of Statistics data puts Victoria’s median yearly wage at $71,760 as of August 2025.
Ms Tindall noted that the developing conflict in the Middle East and its resulting impact on Australia’s economy made it difficult to anticipate how many rate rises homeowners could face this year.
Located at 4 Poplar Close, Melton, this three-bedroom house has a $440,000-$480,000 price tag. The area remains Melbourne’s the most affordable for buyers earning $100k per year, and has a $520,000 median house value.
Advantage Property Consulting director and buyers’ advocate Frank Valentic says some house hunters will have to make lifestyle changes to afford a home, under a further rate increase.
Melbourne-based Advantage Property Consulting director Frank Valentic said another hike would severely impact buyers’ borrowing power and the number of properties they could afford.
“This forces many first-home buyers and singles into smaller properties, often units and apartments, or further out as entry-level prices increase,” the buyers’ advocate said.
“Many buyers will need to make major lifestyle changes to afford a home.”
These measures could include working extra hours, taking on a second job, moving back in with parents or going out for dinner and drinks less often, Mr Valentic added.
PropTrack data shows that Melbourne’s median house price rose just $2000 (0.2 per cent) to hit $1.012m median in February. Picture: Jake Nowakowski.
Zaralend director and mortgage broker Stephanie Jordan said she would encourage buyers to enter the market when they could financially afford to do so, rather than making a decision based on rates.
Ms Jordan advised home prices would generally move faster than most people could save, but she said it was important not to lose hope.
“Don’t let a rate rise dissuade you from trying to get into the market, different lenders have different borrowing capacities depending on your type of income,” she added.
Additionally, Ms Jordan said some lenders would recognise all of emergency services workers’ overtime, such as for police and paramedics, in home loan applications rather than the standard 80 per cent “shaded” rate used for most other professions.
Zaralend director and mortgage broker Stephanie Jordan says first-home buyers and single people can still get into the Victorian property market, and it’ important not to lose hope.
In 2025, research by financial comparison website Finder found young Australians planning on a career in roof tiling, carpentry, dentistry, as doctors, IT or engineering would be among those best-placed to buy a home in the future, based on average yearly earnings ranging from $66,700 to $90,000.
Roof tilers and carpenters could potentially buy a $500,000 home in an estimated 13-14 years, the report found.
However, professions in communications and creative arts were likely to mean workers would need 20 years to buy a residence for the same price, based on average $52,000 and $56,000 salaries respectively.
In Melbourne’s outer north, this house at 5 Wyatt Way, Wallan, is for sale with $595,000-$645,000 price hopes. The area is one of 10 across the wider city where buyers on a $100,000 wage will be able to purchase under another rate increase.
WHERE A $100K INCOME CAN BUY AFTER NEXT RATE HIKE
Suburb |
Median house price |
Loan Amount |
Average single wage required to be able to borrow 80 per cent of home value |
|||
| Melton | $520,000 | $416,000 | $89,000 | |||
| Melton South | $560,000 | $448,000 | $94,000 | |||
| Kurunjang | $587,936 | $470,349 | $98,000 | |||
| Dallas | $590,750 | $472,600 | $98,000 | |||
| Melton West | $595,000 | $476,000 | $98,000 | |||
| Harkness | $599,500 | $479,600 | $99,000 | |||
| Thornhill Park | $600,000 | $480,000 | $99,000 | |||
| Wyndham Vale | $600,000 | $480,000 | $99,000 | |||
| Brookfield | $606,551 | $485,241 | $100,000 | |||
| Wallan | $608,550 | $486,840 | $100,000 |
Source: Canstar, PropTrack.
Assumes a 20 per cent deposit for a 30-year loan, based on a 6 per cent variable rate, annual expenses of $24,000, no debts, no dependants, 90 per cent of post-tax income available to service the loan and expenses, and a 3 per cent interest rate buffer
Additional reporting by Tim McIntyre.
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