Sea-changing Sydneysiders have brought the city’s housing crisis to the rest of the state, as new data reveals the shocking extent of unaffordability in the regional markets once believed to offer buyers a more affordable lifestyle.
Six of NSW’s ten most unaffordable property markets are now regional areas, up from just one in 2019, according to analysis by Primara Research and Airteam for homeloanrates.com.au.
Five NSW regions are now defined by the research as “impossibly unaffordable,” defined as a median property price exceeding nine times the median household income.
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NSW most unaffordable markets have been revealed. Source: Primara Research
The research uses Australian Bureau of Statistics figures on population, wage price index and census data, the latest data of which is available from June 2024.
Primara Research head of research and data Peter Drennan said the data showed how tree change and sea change movement had not just relocated demand, but “permanently displaced affordability”.
“The people who already lived in Nambucca Heads or Coffs Harbour didn’t get a pay rise because Sydneysiders arrived,” he said.
“Their incomes stayed flat while prices surged, and the affordability ratio collapsed.”
Coffs Harbour and Grafton was the highest riser, climbing to the third most unaffordable market in NSW from 27th in 2019.
Richmond-Tweed, Illawarra, the Mid North Coast and The Central Coast all moved into the top ten, joining the Southern Highlands and Shoalhaven which has remained the fourth most unaffordable market since 2019.
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Coffs Harbour has risen from the 27th to the third most unaffordable area in NSW. Picture: iStock
Sydney’s Northern Beaches remained the most unaffordable region relative to local income, followed by the Eastern Suburbs.
The City and Inner South, as well as Ryde, the Inner West and the Inner South West all fell out of the top ten.
In Northern Sydney’s Putney, the median property is priced at almost 27-times the median income in the area.
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Sydney’s Northern Beaches has been the most unaffordable area in NSW since 2019. Picture: Tom Parrish
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Just 13 areas across NSW are now considered to be affordable, down from 31 in 2019. None are located in Sydney or anywhere along the state’s coastline.
For buyers seeking affordability, the data points to regions in the state’s west, namely the Far West and Orana (six affordable areas), New England and the North West (four) and the Central West (three).
“Thirteen affordable areas in a state of eight million people is a crisis, not a housing cycle,” Mr Drennan said.
“And the uncomfortable truth is that the policy response has largely focused on supply in Sydney, while the affordability collapse has already spread 600 kilometres up the coast.”
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