The nation is falling short of the Labor’s Housing Accord
Australia needs to build the equivalent of two entire new suburbs every month in extra supply alone to meet the Federal Government’s ambitious housing goal.
Explosive new data show just 268,445 homes have been built in the 18 months since the National Housing Accord was announced, despite Housing Minister Clare O’Neil reaffirming Labor’s commitment to delivering 1.2 million homes by mid-2029.
New research from HomeLoanRates.com.au, conducted by independent data firm Primara Research, reveals the nation will finish 305,183 homes short of its target by 2029 if construction continues at the same sluggish rate.
It means nearly one in four of the dwellings promised to desperate first-home buyers and struggling renters will never be built.
To bridge the gap, 931,555 dwellings must be delivered over the next three and a half years, according to the research.
New research shows Australia will fall 300,000 short of its build target at the current completion rate
Since the Accord’s launch, Australia has averaged just 44,741 completions per quarter. That figure would need to lift to 66,540 completed builds every quarter until the deadline to reach the 1.2 million milestone.
It equates to an extra 7,266 homes built every month, above the output, which would provide housing for more than 18,000 people based on average household sizes.
To put that into perspective, Census data shows the average suburb in Sydney has around 8,000 residents, while Brisbane and Melbourne have about 13,000 to 14,000 per suburb.
“The numbers are clear. To meet the target, completions need to lift by 49 per cent from today’s average,” Primara Research director Peter Drennan said.
“That’s an additional 7,266 homes per month above what is currently being built. It’s not impossible, but nothing in the current trajectory suggests it’s happening.”
NSW accounted for about half of the national monthly shortfall
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A state breakdown showed NSW accounted for about half of the national monthly shortfall. NSW was home to 31 per cent of the national population, but recorded just 26 per cent of national completions, sitting 39 per cent behind its target.
According to the data, the state lacked 7,192 of the 14,914 additional homes needed across the country every single month to get the pipeline back on track.
Queensland was 31 per cent behind its target, Tasmania 50 per cent behind, and the Northern Territory lagged by a staggering 81 per cent.
On the flip side, Victoria and the ACT were found to be more on track. Victoria, with 26 per cent of the nation’s population, contributed 32 per cent of its completions. The ACT fell short by just nine dwellings.
“Victoria and the ACT show it can be done at a state level. But NSW alone accounts for an estimated half of the national monthly shortfall,” Mr Drennan said.
“Until NSW and the growth states close that gap, the national target remains out of reach.”
Minister for Housing Clare O’Neil during Question Time at Parliament House in Canberra. Picture: NewsWire / Martin Ollman
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