Canada’s largest housing markets just added another entry to their growing list of warning signs. New CMHC and TransUnion data shows mortgage delinquency rates in Toronto and Vancouver climbed in Q3 2025. Vancouver’s rate has more than doubled from its 2022 record low, though it remains below the national level. Toronto wishes its rate only doubled—the region has now surged 4.5x its record low, reaching the highest rate since at least 2012.
Toronto Mortgage Delinquencies Are 4.5x Their Record Low—And Still Climbing
Toronto mortgage delinquencies have climbed to their highest level in over a decade. The delinquency rate rose 3 basis points (bps) in Q3 2025 to reach 0.27%, up 9 bps from last year. The rate is now the highest since at least 2012.
The pace it’s climbing is even more impressive than the height. A mix of rock-bottom rates, speculative frenzy, and pandemic-era credit relief reversed a slowly rising trend in 2020, pushing the rate down to 0.06% in Q1 2021. It largely held those lows through Q3 2022, when rising rates and the end of credit relief programs began unwinding the artificially suppressed rates. What followed wasn’t just normalization—Q3 2025 came in 4.5x the 2021 record low.
Vancouver Mortgage Delinquencies Hit Highest Level Since 2016
Greater Vancouver mortgage borrowers are feeling pain too, just not to the same degree as Toronto. The delinquency rate climbed 1 bp to 0.19% in Q3 2025, up 4 bps from last year, hitting the highest level since Q2 2016. It still sits below the national rate, but the gap is narrowing.
Unlike Toronto, Vancouver’s trajectory looks less like a collapse and more like it’s picking up where it left off. The rate made a brief climb to 0.15% in Q2 2020 before falling to a record low of 0.08% last reported in 2022. Since then, the rate has more than doubled, rising 4 bps above its 2020 high. For now, that looks like market normalization—but that can change fast.
All signs point to this trend continuing in both cities, at least near term. Reduced liquidity produces higher delinquency rates, not necessarily consumer stress. A borrower in trouble usually tries to sell the property before the mortgage turns delinquent. It’s only when they can’t sell that the mortgage becomes a liability. With slow sales through Q4 and a slow start to Q1 2026, the pressure on delinquency rates is already baked in.
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