Toronto real estate is finding out it’s not invincible, after all. New Equifax data reveals Toronto CMA’s mortgage delinquency rate surged in Q1 2025. While rising delinquencies are a national story, this is very different from the normalization seen in other Canadian markets. Over the past few years, Toronto’s delinquency rate has more than tripled and reached a multi-decade high.
Canadian Mortgage Delinquencies
We won’t bore you with a full explanation since we just did it yesterday, but we will quickly gloss over the major points worth remembering:
- Mortgage delinquency rate: the share of total mortgages that are at least 90 days past due.
- It’s about liquidity: When people can’t pay their mortgage, they sell—whether the market is good or bad. They only go into foreclosure if they can’t find a buyer, hence this is an issue of liquidity not necessarily consumer health.
- Rates vary by market: Due to differences in economic and reporting factors, every market will have a different “normal” for its delinquency rate. The velocity, or change, in the rate is more important—a quickly eroding market can indicate significant overvaluation since, once again—it’s about liquidity.
For those who want more details, check out yesterday’s piece on the national data. Got it? Now on to the data.
Toronto Mortgage Delinquencies Tripled, Highest In Over A Decade
Toronto real estate: Mortgage delinquency rate.
Source: Equifax; CMHC; Better Dwelling.
Toronto mortgage delinquencies are surging higher—much faster than the rest of the country. The delinquency rate climbed 2 basis points (bps) to 0.22% in Q1 2025, a 10% rise in the quarter. The rate is 8 bps higher than last year—equal to a 58% increase—and Toronto’s mortgage delinquency rate is the highest in at least 12 years. Unfortunately, pre-2013 data isn’t available at the city level.
Toronto’s mortgage delinquencies aren’t just unusually high—the surge has been staggering. In just two and a half years, the delinquency rate more than tripled (3.67x) from the record low in Q3 2022. While other markets have seen an increase, none have seen such a rapid one—most major cities still remain below the national average.
The rising delinquencies are just one of the compounding issues materializing in Toronto real estate. After a nearly 26-year run where the market seemed invincible, there’s been a sudden shift with sales plunging to multi-decade lows for both new construction and existing homes. At the same time, the market has the most inventory on record—yet prices remain lofty. It’s not exactly a mystery why the region has seen delinquency rates rise significantly faster than the national rate and other major cities.
English (US) · 