Greater Toronto condo owners holding out for the monetary easing cycle got some bad news last month—it didn’t matter. Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) data shows the benchmark (typical) condo apartment price plunged lower in September. The declines aren’t softening either, instead picking up pace and making one of the largest monthly drops on record. Condo prices in the region are now forming a double-dip decline, and shedding value at one of the fastest rates on record.
Toronto Condo Prices Just Saw One of The Sharpest Monthly Drops On Record
The price of a benchmark condo apartment in Greater Toronto.
Source: CREA; TRREB; Better Dwelling.
Greater Toronto condo prices are plunging. The price of a benchmark condo fell a whopping 2% (-$13,400) to $654,300 in September, marking the fifth consecutive month lower. Those declines are also managing to get larger every month. September was the fifth largest monthly drop on record, only beat by 3 months in 2022 (June, July, and August), and January 2009. Not exactly what most expect considering one of the sharpest monetary easing cycles just kicked off.
Toronto Condo Prices Are Seeing Declines Accelerate
The 12-month change for Greater Toronto condo apartment benchmark prices.
Source: CREA; TRREB; Better Dwelling.
Condo prices aren’t looking so hot compared to 12-months ago, despite falling mortgage rates. When compared to a year ago, condo prices were 7.2% (-$50,400) lower in September. Once again, only four months have reported a lower 12-month price move, and none were outside of 2023. It’s a double-dip correction, and occurring at a very fast rate. The region hasn’t seen anything like this since the early 90s, before the modern city and board were formed.
Toronto Condo Prices Have Rolled Back Over 3 Years
Greater Toronto condo prices have been in a downtrend for just over two years. The benchmark price has fallen 16.6% (-$129,900) since hitting a record high back in April 2022. Prices haven’t been this low since October 2021, showing no progress over the past 3 years. With the trend making a sharp break lower, the odds of prices moving even lower are likely very high.
However, there’s no need to pour one out for Toronto condo speculators. Condos are still 22.8% (+$121,300) higher than they were in January 2020, which is substantial growth. It fails to meet the progress of major US investment indexes, but few end users would be considered in a tough spot. Fallout would primarily be concentrated in negative cashflow specu-lords, but even then the decines are unlikely to be critical loses. Which is good, since that demographic largely displaced end users in recent years.
Greater Toronto condo prices seem to be following a similar path to most other markets. The monetary easing cycle was anticipated to boost demand, helping to boost prices. However, when the actual easing came, it had little to no impact on the general market. At the same time, more and more sellers are appearing while rental vacancies and mortgage delinquencies climb.
English (US) · 