Time for your cheat sheet on this week’s top stories.
Canadian Real Estate
Canadian Variable-Rate Mortgages Surge As BoC Recreates Renewal Trap
Canadian banks advanced $38.3 billion (+3.3% y/y) in uninsured mortgages in January, the largest for the month on record. But this wasn’t fresh demand—it was a wave of renewals arriving five years after the then-record surge in 2021. The bigger story is variable-rate loans are capturing 45% of the market, a sharp jump from the record low of 4.9% roughly two years earlier. Variable-rate mortgages are now significantly cheaper than the traditionally preferred 5-year fixed loans after the Bank of Canada’s rate cut misstep helped recreate the same rate trap seen in 2021.
Ontario’s HST Rebate Is Driving New Home Prices Higher Without Sales
Ontario’s newly announced HST rebate for new home buyers may not save them much after all. Sold as an affordability measure that also extended to investors, industry professionals are warning buyers to exercise caution and not assume they’re saving money. In many cases, they say builders have simply raised prices to absorb the “HST savings,” resulting in double-digit price increases despite no comparable surge in demand. The HST relief is leaving buyers with higher prices, while taxpayers foot the bill for another builder bailout.
Canada’s Shrinking Population: Most Losses In Ontario, Alberta Grows
Canada’s population shrank 0.25% (-103.5k people) to 41.5 million in Q1 2026, the first decline since Confederation. However, not all provinces are seeing losses: Ontario lost 0.3% (-54.9k people) of its population, representing more than half of the national drop. Meanwhile, Alberta continued to grow, with its population rising 0.14% in the same quarter. The contrast reflects very different growth models: Ontario focused on temporary residents, while Alberta focused on attracting domestic migrants from other provinces. Now that immigration has slowed, Ontario continues to lose residents to other provinces, while Alberta benefits from that outflow.
Canadians Face Fewer Layoffs Than Normal, But Good Luck Finding A Job
Canada’s latest job report was hardly impressive, but March was the best result year-to-date. The country added 14,100 jobs after six-digit losses in the first two months. Despite the weak report, a few bright spots stood out: wage growth hit 4.7% year-over-year and the layoff rate was just 0.6%—below the pre-pandemic average, despite warnings of AI- and trade war-related layoffs that still haven’t materialized. Canada’s employment problems are less a story about job losses and more about a lack of business confidence that has frozen hiring.
Toronto Real Estate
Toronto Real Estate Prices Climb As Inventory Remains Near Highs
Greater Toronto real estate prices climbed 0.3% to $941,800 in March, marking a second straight month of gains. Even so, it was still one of the weakest Marches on record for sales, with inventory hovering near unusually high levels. Price gains can signal a sales rebound, but with last month’s growth smaller than February’s, the price divergence is more likely noise than a market recovery.
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