Time for your cheat sheet on this week’s top stories.
Canadian Real Estate
Canadian Real Estate Resembles US Bubble After Perfect Storm: BMO
Canadian real estate’s correction now mirrors the 2007 US housing bubble, according to BMO. Ontario prices have plunged much faster than any historical correction, more closely tracking US housing post-Great Recession. If it continues this trajectory, expect the cycle to last another 6 years—faster than usual for Canada. The bank reminds investors that housing corrections are measured in years, not months.
Canadian Gold Imports See Historic Surge As Investors Brace For Turmoil
Canadian investors are in a gold rush—a strong sign of fear. Imports of unwrought precious metals, primarily gold, climbed to $2.51 billion in August, nearly triple the month before and the second-highest on record. It was second only to the buying spree in April 2025. This kind of surge points to a flight to safety, and serves as a warning that investors are preparing for an unusually large risk event.
Bank of Canada Just Made Its Most Disturbing Speech In A Generation
The Bank of Canada is losing faith in its own core inflation metrics—a bigger issue than it sounds. In a recent speech, the Deputy Governor claimed core inflation measures no longer reflect “underlying inflation,” which he argues isn’t a statistic, but a feeling. He then cited it as a statistic anyway, conveniently serving as the only one justifying the Bank’s latest decision. This isn’t the first time confidence in its key inflation measure has cracked—similar doubts emerged in 1991 and 1983—dates that won’t go unnoticed by Canadian real estate buffs.
Canada’s Job Market Is Booming—If You Ignore The Unadjusted Data
Canada’s job data looks great—until you check the raw employment data. Seasonally adjusted figures show a gain of 60.4k jobs in September, with full-time work up 0.6% (+106.1k jobs). If it sounds too good to be true, that’s because it is. Seasonal adjustments are designed to compensate for predictable variations, not irregular trade shocks. As a result, the data appears to be overcorrecting, turning consistent job losses into increasingly larger job gains.
Canada’s Job Market Mismatch: 1 In 3 New Immigrants Overqualified
Canada is squandering a huge opportunity—its existing talent. New data shows 15.4% of Canadian-born workers are overqualified for their job. That figure doubles to 31.3% for immigrants who arrived within the past five years, a gap consistent across all ages. The lack of market efficiency indicates a sluggish, inefficient labour market—and a policy failure that wastes the talent we have, while chasing the talent policymakers think they need.
Canadian Mortgage Delinquencies Soar—And It’s Worse Than It Looks
Canadian mortgage credit quality is deteriorating fast. Since falling to record lows in Q3 2022, the mortgage delinquency rate has climbed 9 basis points (+64%) to 0.23% in Q2 2025. The level remains within norms, but the growth rate is alarming—especially alongside other factors such as soaring Power of Sale listings and rising delinquencies at the Big Six banks.
If Toronto’s Condo Market Is A Bubble, What The Heck Is Halifax?
Halifax may soon dethrone Toronto as Canada’s biggest condo bubble. Halifax condo prices surged 183% from 2020 to 2022, and haven’t moved much since. In contrast, Toronto condo prices have plunged 23% since 2022 and continue to head lower. Both cities are now on a collision course—will Halifax soon be more expensive than Toronto, or is Halifax next to correct?
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