Time for your cheat sheet on this week’s top stories.
Canadian Real Estate
Canadian Mortgage Rates Set To Surge With Global Bond Yield Repricing
Canada’s real estate industry is watching the overnight rate, but it should be paying attention to bond yields. Mortgage rates are priced off credit benchmarks of similar maturities, and the Bank of Canada’s overnight rate only impacts variable-rate loans. More popular fixed-rate loans move with Government of Canada (GoC) bond yields. The GoC 5-year bond yield added 19 basis points over just five days last week, sending it to the highest level since August 2025. A move this rapid isn’t a blip, but a repricing of market expectations amid a global trend of rising yields.
Canadian Real Estate Investors Captured Nearly 75% of Ownership Growth
Canada’s real estate investor problem is bigger than previously thought. New data from Statistics Canada’s Canadian Housing Statistics Program shows investors accounted for 72.5% of new homeownership growth in 2023—meaning more than 7 in 10 new owners were investors. In Ontario, that share surged to 84.4%, nearly four times their historical 21.7% share. This isn’t just a barrier for buyers trying to enter the market; it reflects capital being diverted from productive investment into non-productive growth. It’s a destabilizing trend that even the central bank has flagged as a concern.
Canadian Household Debt Now Mirrors US Before The 2008 Crash
Merry Statsmas! Canada’s national statistics agency delivered an early gift this week—a bonus household debt-to-income (DTI) dataset normalized for comparison with the US. US household DTI peaked at 170.3% in 2007, alongside home prices during the infamous bubble heard ‘round the world. Canada’s DTI topped out at 174.1% in 2022, which also marked a peak for home prices. That parallel is unlikely to be just a coincidence, but a sign that Canada’s housing market has moved past peak-frenzy conditions and is grinding back toward normalization.
Bank of Canada Confirms Rate Floor, And It’s Bad News For Real Estate
The Bank of Canada (BoC) held rates at its December meeting, as widely expected. What was unexpected: The BoC warned that the 2.25% overnight rate is likely the floor and is now providing stimulus at this level. The Bank further noted that the economy is undergoing a “structural shift,” suggesting slower growth and higher inflation are expected to become the norm. For credit-sensitive industries like real estate, that’s a clear message: easy credit isn’t coming back anytime soon.
Global Households Are Deleveraging. Canada Is Loading Up On Debt: BMO
Global households have been deleveraging since 2009, strengthening balance sheets. Institute of International Finance data reveals that household debt fell to 57% of GDP globally, and 67.4% in advanced economies in Q3 2025. Canada is the outlier: household debt has climbed to roughly 100% of GDP, up from about 80% before 2009. That’s a national problem, not just a household one. Research shows that debt above 85% of GDP is associated with slower long-term growth. As a result, each credit-driven boost acts as a sugar high—a short-term lift, but without productive investment it turns into a drag.
Canadian Inflation Overstates Rental Price Growth, Warns CIBC
One of Canada’s Big Six banks is warning that CPI overstates rental inflation, but does it? In a research note to investors, CIBC Economics points to CPI rent rising 5.2% year-over-year while CMHC reports asking rents are down 3% from last year, suggesting rental inflation is overstated. The problem is the bank’s comparison conflates two very different measures. CPI rent only measures rents paid by actual tenants—both existing and new—not the unvalidated asking rents CIBC is comparing. In other words, CPI is doing exactly what it’s designed to do—track the cost of living, not the rise and fall of landlords’ aspirational pricing.
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