Time for your cheat sheet on this week’s top stories.
Canadian Real Estate
Canadian Mortgage Originations Rise 27%, Second Biggest Month On Record
Canadian mortgage originations hit $40.7 billion in June, up 27.5% from last year—making it the second-biggest month on record. That kind of surge would normally signal renewed housing demand, but not this time. Home sales remain weak, but a flood of pre-construction deals from the 2020-2022 investor boom are now closing, and those without cash need financing. The spike isn’t about a buyer revival, it’s a delayed bill for the last frenzy.
Canada’s Youth Jobless Rate Fueled By Student Immigration Surge: BMO
Canada’s job market pain is hitting young adults hardest. Youth unemployment jumped to 14.6% in July, the highest since 2010 (excluding the pandemic). But this isn’t about job losses—it’s the fallout from a student immigration boom that swelled the labour supply. The problem isn’t weak demand; it’s policymakers flooding the market with more workers than it can absorb.
Canadian Inflation Actually Accelerated—Especially Shelter, Food, BoC Measures
Canada’s headline inflation looks tame—but it’s a mirage. Annual CPI slowed to 1.7% in July, mostly due to falling gas prices skewing the data. The Bank of Canada’s (BoC) core inflation measures, which strip out short-term volatility, show price growth remains stubbornly high—and in some cases accelerating. Shelter costs are especially painful, rising back to 3% year-over-year—50% above the BoC’s 2% target.
Canadian Condo Prices Just Kicked Off A Second Wave Correction
Canadian condo prices posted a fourth straight monthly decline, marking the start of a second-leg correction. The benchmark condo fell to $490,600 in July, down 5.4% year-over-year and 14.1% below the peak. Yet only 1 in 5 households earn enough to afford these “starter homes,” limiting demand recovery potential in the short-term. This problem will compound real estate problems in the future—if households can’t afford starter homes today, they won’t be able to provide liquidity for higher segments later.
Toronto Real Estate
Toronto’s Condo Market Is Spiraling Towards A Hard Landing
Toronto’s condo pipeline is drying up fast. New starts fell to 10,583 units in July, down 60% year-over-year, and we’re far from the bottom. RBC warns weak pre-construction sales suggest starts in the region can fall another 80% by December 2026. Efforts to revive demand are clashing with unintended consequences—policy-driven building booms have inflated construction costs, pushing prices beyond what most buyers can afford.
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