Time for your cheat sheet on this week’s top stories.
Canadian Real Estate
What Slowdown? Canadian GDP Tops BoC Call, Past Data Gets More Revisions
Canadian GDP is growing much faster than the Bank of Canada (BoC) anticipated. Statistics Canada (Stat Can) released Q4 GDP data that shows annualized growth came in nearly a point higher than the central bank anticipated. The growth was also accompanied by upward revisions of Q2 and Q3, indicating the economy is doing better than thought. Before getting too excited, there’s still a lot of questions regarding the gaps between this boom and more concrete data points like unemployment and insolvencies.
Bank of Canada To Hold Rates, Economy Stronger Than Thought: RBC
Canada’s largest bank sees interest rates at this level sticking around for the near future. The country’s economy is doing better than anyone anticipated, explained RBC in its latest rate guidance. With inflation risk now to the upside, they see the BoC being cautious at the next meeting. The central bank won’t waste time easing if tariffs are implemented, but if the risks don’t materialize the economy may not need more easing at this time.
Canadians Face The Worst Job Market In 7 Years As Job Vacancies Plunge
Canadians are facing one of the toughest job markets in years. The year ended with a job vacancy rate plunging to its lowest read in 7 years. Not that long ago, but very different from the economy households have recently been exposed to. Just 2 years ago, there were more jobs than unemployed people and the economy was running hot. Now the country has roughly 1 job open for every 3 unemployed people actively seeking work.
Canadian Business Growth Just Flatlined To The Lowest Level Since 2021
Canadian business growth is grinding to a halt, continuing a pre-tariff threat trend. Statistics Canada reported 2,300 fewer active businesses in November, indicating businesses are closing faster than new ones are replacing them. Over the past few months, the trend has seen annual growth of businesses fall to the lowest rate since 2021, less than a year after the pandemic kicked off. Business growth at the rate of the country’s biggest recession, especially with such lofty population growth, is not an encouraging data point.
Toronto & Vancouver Real Estate Demand Is Amongst The Weakest In Canada
Canadian real estate has firmed from its worst point, but to say it has recovered is a bit optimistic. The sales to new listings ratio (SNLR), a fundamental measure of demand, shows the market is barely balanced at the national level. However, only markets with significant government employment and recently ordered back-to-office legislation, are tight. Canada’s two largest real estate markets, Toronto and Vancouver, are considered oversupplied and near the bottom of demand for real estate.
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