Time for your cheat sheet on this week’s top stories.
Canadian Real Estate
Atlantic Canada & Prairies To Be Hit Hard By China’s Tariff Retaliation: RBC
Canadians are so focused on the American-induced trade war they likely forgot they started one with China a few months prior. RBC warns that China has finally retaliated to Ottawa’s tariffs on EVs and metals from the country. The response is focused on Canada’s agriculture and fisheries, consequently concentrating the blow to Atlantic Canada and the Prairies. While most people consider the impact to be relatively small in terms of dollar values, we know from the brief 2019-canola conflict that second-order effects can deliver much larger hits to specific industries.
Canadian Private Sector Lost Jobs, Long-Term Unemployment Rises
Canada’s job market had a rocky March, and it wasn’t entirely due to the trade war. Employment fell 0.2% (-33k jobs) to 20.96 million in March, with the private sector losing 48k in that period. As a result the unemployment rate made its first advance in months, climbing 0.1 points to 6.7%—roughly 1 point higher than it was in 2018 and 2019. Complicating the problem is the fact that nearly 1 in 4 (23.7%) unemployed are now considered long-term unemployed, which means they have been searching for a job for at least 27 weeks.
Canadian Mortgage Arrears Climb To The Highest Rate Since 2021
Canadian mortgage arrears continue to climb as real estate sales slow, and borrowers struggle to sell. CBA data shows the arrears rate for selected members climbed 0.04 points to 0.22% in January, marking the highest rate since 2021. The rapid surge in the rate has seen the volume of mortgage arrears at large banks climb 57% since hitting a record low in mid-2022. An issue further complicated by the fact lenders have been ordered to proactively mitigate these numbers, and the data selectively skews to higher quality borrowers—and the rate is still climbing.
Toronto Real Estate
Toronto Real Estate Enters A Bear Market, Sales Plunge & Inventory Rips
Toronto real estate’s rut deepened as the market plunged into bear territory. The price of a typical home fell 0.5% (-$5,400) to $1,068,500 in March, marking the first downtick since October. The drop came alongside some of the weakest sales on record and a multi-year high for inventory. The erosion is largely attributed to household discomfort over a rapidly changing political landscape impacting everything from leadership to trade.
Vancouver Real Estate
Vancouver Real Estate Prices Rise Despite Historically Weak Sales
Greater Vancouver real estate saw historically weak sales, more inventory, and… higher prices? Despite having one of the weakest volume of March sales in decades, and lofty inventory-levels, the price of a typical home climbed. Buyers finally have the power to negotiate, but instead only a handful showed up and offered to pay more.
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