The Super El Niño Is Official—and Homeowners in These States Need To Prepare

After much speculation, federal forecasters have officially announced that an El Niño has started forming and will have sizable impacts on weather patterns for months to come. 

The official forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration calls for an El Niño to intensify in the fall, with a 63% chance of a very strong El Niño between November 2026 and January 2027.

This could likely rank among some of the strongest such events on record. While early models suggested this would happen, forecasters urge everyone to start preparations now for what’s to come in the next six to seven months.

What does El Nino mean for U.S. homeowners?

An El Niño unfolds a little bit differently each time.

“Every El Niño is not the same; each one is unique with its own imprint on our weather,” said Ken Graham, director at NOAA’s National Weather Service (NWS). "Advanced monitoring and an improved understanding of El Niño patterns allow the NWS to better predict and better prepare the public and our core partners for what is to come.”

The initial expectation is that above-average temperatures will be nearly everywhere from June to August.

As we move into the fall, the NOAA is forecasting some good news—and some bad news—depending where you live. 

First, the good news:

El Niño often leads to a warmer-than-usual winter over the northern U.S., and milder winter could mean lower heating bills for millions of Americans in regions like the Northeast. 

Additionally, depending on the strength of the El Niño, stronger upper-level winds tend to suppress storm and hurricane development in the Atlantic Basin, so we could see suppressed hurricane activity. If the system shifts southward, there could be drier conditions over the Northern Rockies and the Ohio and Tennessee valleys.

However, other parts of the country need to be on alert in the coming months, particularly on the West Coast and Southern states. 

Weaker winds tend to enhance tropical development in the eastern and central Pacific basins, according to NOAA. This will have a significant impact on Hawaii. The dry season for the islands is typically from May through September, but the NOAA Climate Prediction Center favors El Niño conditions to emerge by early summer and persist through the 2026-2027 winter.

This means “above-normal” precipitation is favored for all Hawaiian Islands through early autumn.

Meanwhile, NOAA also warns that stormier weather is likelier in the Southern U.S., with chances of both rain and snow increased during El Nino winters, and high-tide flooding could become a higher risk in parts of the U.S., especially on the West Coast. 

How to prepare for a Super El Niño

Hotter temperatures in the coming months align with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) findings that electricity consumption is expected to be higher this season than in any of the previous five summers. 

With a long, hot, and expensive season ahead, homeowners can take certain steps to prepare their homes and save money at the same time. 

While it may be uncomfortable, think about setting your thermostat slightly higher to save energy. When you are home and using the AC, run a fan to help circulate the cold air. It uses less energy. 

For those expecting more severe weather, like rain and snow come the fall, make sure your roof is in good condition now and will be ready to withstand the elements. 

And for those expecting heavy rain, you’ll want to manage the water before it even becomes a problem. Keep your gutters and other drainage systems clear to prevent water backup.

Also, it’s important to make sure water is directed away from the foundation, so consider grading around your house to keep flood waters away. 

Finally, inspect around your home now to check for and seal any exterior cracks or gaps.