Master Builders Queensland deputy CEO Michael Hopkins: Goal slipping out of reach
Looming tax changes could blow a massive new hole in the housing pipeline, with Queensland already falling more than 14,000 homes short of its approval targets.
Exclusive analysis by Master Builders Queensland shows federal budget changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax could result in 9,000 fewer homes built nationally over four years, with around 20 per cent of that shortfall in Queensland.
Landing as the National Housing Accord hits its two-year anniversary on July 1, the shock new figures reveal the state needed 98,390 new home approvals since July 2024 but secured just 84,330 – a gap of 14.3 per cent.
This week marks two years since the introduction of the National Housing Accord
Master Builders Queensland deputy CEO Michael Hopkins warned the goal was slipping further out of reach, firing a shot at Canberra over the tax overhaul.
“Most recently, higher materials costs and supply chain disruptions resulting from the Middle East conflict have been placing pressure on project feasibility and delivery,” Mr Hopkins said.
“Added to this is the uncertainty stemming from federal budget changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax.
“That’s the last thing we need right now.”
Slashing investor tax perks risked drying up the pre-sales developers need to secure construction finance, stalling new housing projects before they even get out of the ground.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Treasurer Jim Chalmers announced cuts to investor tax breaks in this year’s budget. Picture: David Gray/AFP
While new dwelling approvals were projected to jump from 38,314 in 2024-25 to an annualised 46,011 in 2025-26 , they sat well below the Accord’s target of 49,196, Master Builders’ analysis of Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) shows.
Worse, getting those homes built remained a critical bottleneck. Dwelling completions hit 33,695 in 2024-25 , but were forecast to dip to 32,138 this financial year, slipping beneath the Accord average of 33,176.
It’s a far cry from the state’s peak a decade ago, when Queensland built 48,074 new dwellings in 2016-17.
Still, underlying buyer demand was steady. New construction and purchase home loans were slightly up from 18,987 in 2024-25 to an annualised 19,901 in 2025-26, edging past the Accord average of 19,379.
Mr Hopkins said severe workforce shortages and a record infrastructure pipeline were stalling home builds
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Mr Hopkins blamed severe workforce shortages and a record $119b infrastructure pipeline for stalling residential construction.
“The shortage of people to deliver the homes we need…is our biggest problem,” he said. “We need around 19,000 more people to join us each year.”
Cutting red tape was also key, while ensuring safety and build quality remained the priority.
Despite the brutal economic headwinds, Mr Hopkins said Queensland had outperformed other states, crediting the state government for “prioritising reform that is making a difference.”
He praised the scrapping of Best Practice Industry Conditions on government projects and highlighted key budget lifelines.
Productivity is at the heart of boosting housing affordability and supply, Mr Hopkins said
“The State Budget measures for first home buyers of new homes, and the Residential Activation Fund to unlock new land through essential infrastructure, are all positive steps forward,” he said, adding that the industry also supports “the ongoing CFMEU Inquiry and the work of the union administrator.”
To close the widening gap, he said the state must act on the pivotal Queensland Productivity Commission (QPC) report, calling it “the biggest coup for us.”
“Productivity has been a bit of a buzzword the last few years, but it really is at the heart of the solution to boosting housing affordability and supply,” Mr Hopkins said.
“The focus now must be on getting projects delivered on time and ensuring taxpayers get value for money – and to do that, we urgently need to act on the QPC’s recommendations.”
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