Stalling winter auction market hands Melbourne buyers top hand

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Finance-ready Melbourne buyers are being told a weaker winter auction market could open rare six-figure opportunities on premium family homes.

Melbourne homebuyers are in a position to score six-figure discounts as the city’s winter auction slowdown puts pressure on sellers to cut their expectations.

The clearance rate fell to 47.2 per cent over the King’s Birthday long weekend, with agents this week revealing that in some price brackets buyers are now able to get homes for six-figures less than residences in the same street sold a year ago.

Victoria is scheduled to host 963 auctions this week, more than double the number recorded last week when the state’s housing market started with the news Melbourne’s median house price had fallen $10,000 to $995,000 across May and finished with its worst clearance rate since Covid-era lockdowns.

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Real Estate Institute of Victoria president Jacob Caine said with the clearance rate unlikely to shift dramatically this week, ready buyers had an advantage while others hesitated.

“At the moment, buyers have a slight advantage over sellers,” Mr Caine said.

“Buyers have a bit more wiggle room to be discerning about which properties they will be interested in and what they are willing to pay.”

Matthews Agency director John Matthews said there were scenarios in the $2m price bracket where homes were being listed for sale this year with prices up to $500,000 below the levels achieved a year a go for similar homes in the same street.

In Aberfeldie, 31A Brunel St is listed with $2.95m hopes after nearby 26 Brunel St sold late in 2025 for about $3.1m.

In Moonee Ponds, 6 Trinafour St is asking $2.25m-$2.475m after nearby 8 Trinafour St sold late in 2025 for about $2.75m.

“The cleanest comparison is 26 Brunel, which sold late in 2025 for about $3.1m,” Mr Matthews said.

“That is probably the best comparable to 31A Brunel, where my vendors were initially hoping to achieve a similar result.

“But the market has shifted. We are now asking about $2.95m.”

6 Trinafour St, Moonee Ponds, is asking $2.25m-$2.475m after a nearby home sold late in 2025 for about $2.75m.

The Moonee Ponds home is among the premium family properties agents say show how the market has shifted towards disciplined buyers.

Mr Matthews said the current market wasn’t a cause for alarm.
“It is not about panic or distress. It is about the fact that there is genuine value in the market right now for buyers who are prepared to act,” he said.

“You could say the same thing with Trinafour. 8 Trinafour sold late in 2025 for about $2.75m, and now 6 Trinafour, which is a similar property, is asking in the $2.25m-$2.475m range,” he said.

“That is the story and it’s not a negative story, it’s a buying opportunity story.”

Matthews Agency director John Matthews said the softer market was creating value for buyers prepared to act while others hesitated.

31A Brunel St, Aberfeldie, is listed with $2.95m hopes after a comparable nearby sale late in 2025 at about $3.1m.

Mr Matthews said many buyers were trying to pick the bottom of the market, but risked missing the best window by waiting until everyone else felt safe.

“The risk with that strategy is that by the time everyone feels confident again, the best buying window may already be gone,” he said.

He said the best value in his market was above $2m, where conditions had been slower and well-financed buyers had more room to negotiate.

“At $950,000 and below, you have first-home buyers active because that is around the first-home buyer deposit scheme range,” Mr Matthews said.

“Once you get out of the $1m range and you want to upgrade, the next property that genuinely gives you what you want can be $2.5m to $3m, particularly if you want to stay in the same area.

“That is the challenge for a lot of families.”

The Aberfeldie home is part of a $2m-plus market where some buyers are finding more room to negotiate.

ALBA Prop director Tom Mifsud said buyers trying to perfectly time the bottom risked becoming “passive bystanders”.

ALBA Prop director Tom Mifsud said some would-be buyers were too focused on picking the absolute bottom of the market, rather than moving while competition had thinned.

“They are not buyers. They are passive bystanders,” Mr Mifsud said.

“Everyone likes the idea of buying something. Everyone likes the idea of walking past the shops to see if there is a discount.

“But those people are reactive. Genuine buyers are proactive, organised and disciplined. They understand the difference between time in the market versus timing the market.

“If you try to time the market, you lose.”

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REIA president Jacob Caine said ready buyers had a “slight advantage” as uncertainty thinned out the competition.

Mr Caine added that conditions creating uncertainty were weeding out buyers who weren’t confident or willing to spend at the moment.

The latest PropTrack Property Preview Report shows 951 auctions are scheduled across Melbourne this week, with Craigieburn leading the city on 19, followed by Doncaster East on 15, Bentleigh East on 14, and Mount Waverley and Reservoir on 12 each.

Realestate.com.au viewing data shows buyer attention is spreading beyond the city’s biggest auction-volume suburbs, with the most-viewed Victorian auction listing in the past seven days at 28 Diamond St, Niddrie.