The housing undersupply is so chronic in Greater Brisbane that prices are expected to stay elevated for the next two decades.
A horror forecast warns the Greater Brisbane region faces such a chronic undersupply of homes that even its most affordable areas will be priced out of reach of most workers.
PRD Research chief economist Dr Diaswati Mardiasmo warned not even cash rate hikes or multiplier effects of war in the Middle East would be able to make prices drop now.
A PRD Research and Colliers International white paper issued March 2026 revealed the Greater Brisbane region – which is made up of five of the fastest growing councils in the country – will need more than half a million more homes by 2046 if it is to have any hope to meeting population demand, but will fall drastically short.
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Housing supply is unable to catch up with continued surges in population. Source: PRD Research
The report, prepared Dr Mardiasmo and PRD Queensland and Victoria state director Robert Ferguson, said “the projected dwelling needs in Greater Brisbane by 2046 outpaces planned ready-to-sell stock significantly, putting Greater Brisbane in a continuous state of being structurally undersupplied”.
“The unit market will see increased pressure, as house buyers pivot their budget to units; mostly due to the lack of available houses,” it said.
Concerningly, “Ipswich and Logan, traditionally seen as the more affordable option, will see many local buyers priced out” with the supply shortfall to decimate affordability, “as property prices will continue to rise” the report found.
Dr Mardiasmo said “I would expect prices in greater Brisbane to keep on going on a growth trajectory, even if there might be some hits due to cash rate hikes (which is what we are expecting this year) and some slower pace of growth”.
“With us being chronically undersupplied until 2046 this builds in some resilience and sustainability within our property market, which gives us some protection from shocks.”
“Greater shocks (like war in the Middle East) … might slow down demand, however that demand level would still be higher than the supply provided. So prices will still trend up, but not as much / at a slower pace; and ‘at worst’ stabilise,” she said.
PRD chief economist Dr Diaswati “Asti” Mardiasmo.
Brisbane City alone needs more than 210,000 new homes to be built in the next two decades – with just 35,000 planned for delivery in the next three years, almost all of which are apartments with just over 600 houses and 1200 townhouses.
Brisbane council area is projected to grow from 1,264,000 to 1,726,400 people by 2046 – an increase of 462,400 residents, or approximately 72,000 people per year.
Ipswich City needs over 89,000 dwellings by 2046, with its population expected to surge from 233,300 to 480,000. It has just over 3,400 properties and 9,426 residential blocks of land planned for the next three years.
Logan City needs 110,200 dwellings, for a population projected to grow from about 350,000 to 667,000 – with just 1,861 properties planned plus 18,954 lots.
Moreton Bay Regional – where the population is expected to increase from 484,000 to 792,000 – requires almost 126,000 homes. It has just over 4,700 properties planned along with 16,200 block of land.
Redland City in Greater Brisbane’s east need 19,800 dwellings, with its population set to surge from 161,700 to 211,400. It has just 1,123 properties planned plus 1,541 lots over the next three years.
The Unlocking Housing Supply in Greater Brisbane report was released Wednesday. Source: PRD Research
One of the most critical findings of the report was that “most of the planned stock are units and townhouses, highlighting the continuous undersupply of stand-alone dwellings/houses” – a fundamental shift in the market.
Among the obstacles standing in the way of the five council zones were high infrastructure costs, local community opposition to infill development, planning constraints and slow approval processes, construction material costs remaining above pre-pandemic levels, labour shortages and declining worker productivity, limited serviced and available land supply and inconsistent processes across various levels of government.
Among measures underway to combat the supply problem was the Queensland Government’s Land Activation Programme which identifies under-utilised government land for housing. Its Residential Activation Fund provides grants for trunk and essential infrastructure.
The Brisbane City Council is also reviewing Low-Medium Density Residential Zones – comprising 14 per cent of the council’s total residential land – to increase housing supply and density. That would include reducing minimum block sizes from 260 sqm to a tiny 120 sqm – and increasing building heights.
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