Shock as big banks name dates when interest rate cuts begin

1 month ago 26

Sophie Foster

Updated 12 Jun 2026, 3:54pm

First published 12 Jun 2026, 3:25pm

Reserve Bank of Australia’s Governor Michele Bullock is expected to keep rates on hold come Tuesday but the country’s big four banks have wild expectations about what happens next. Picture: NewsWire / Christian Gilles

Australia’s four biggest banks have finally named the dates interest rate cuts will hit struggling homeowners – but there’s a savage catch hiding in the fine print.

For the first time, the big four are united on one thing: cuts are coming – but everything else is a war zone, according to Canstar analysis.

Canstar data insights director Sally Tindall. Picture: Tim Hunter.

ANZ was the last to blink, on Friday finally abandoning its stubborn “rates on hold forever” stance and joining CBA and NAB in tipping two cuts will happen in 2027 – relief that would drag the cash rate from 4.35 per cent down to 3.85 per cent.

For millions of mortgage-crushed Australians, 2027 cannot come fast enough.

But Westpac just threw a grenade into the room, with Australia’s second-biggest bank still holding onto a shock belief that the RBA will hike rates – and that it won’t just be once but twice more before Christmas.

Current big four cash rate forecasts. Source: Canstar.com.au

If it’s right, borrowers are in serious belt-tightening territory, with a $1 million mortgage holder staring down an eye-watering $606 extra every single month compared to January – which would be the brutal cumulative toll of four hikes across 2026.

Those with $600,000 owing would be slugged an extra $364 a month in such a situation compared to the start of the year, and for $800,000 borrowers, it’s $485 gone every month, before a single cut arrives.

Under Westpac’s scenario, there will be no interest rate cuts until 2028.

Impact of a further 0.25 hike on monthly repayments. Source: Canstar.com.au

Canstar data insights director Sally Tindall didn’t sugar-coat it either.

“If you’ve got a mortgage, make sure you’re still preparing for further hikes,” she warned, “until inflation gets well and truly back into the highly evasive target band.”

Tuesday’s RBA meeting is almost certain to deliver a hold – but Ms Tindall warned Aussies not to mistake silence for safety.

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