RBA Interest Rates Live Updates: RBA holds rates as Bullock warns prices have risen permanently

2 days ago 5

This marks the end of our live coverage of the RBA’s sixth cash rate decision of the year, so thank you for following along. The bank’s monetary policy board have opted to hold the cash rate at 3.60%

Join us again on the afternoon of 4 November as we cover the lead up to the RBA’s penultimate rates decision for 2025, already widely anticipated to be a cut.

In the meantime, keep updated over the next few weeks on realestate.com.au with all the latest commentary on the decision, forecasts from our in-house economist team, and expectations for the next meeting.

RBA will make its next decision on interest rates in November

4.45pm

The RBA will meet again in November with their decision on interest rates released on Tuesday, November 4 2025.

In a statement following the decision, the RBA said it was appropriate to remain cautious.

"There are uncertainties about the outlook for domestic economic activity and inflation stemming from both domestic and international developments," the statement said.

"The board remains alert to the heightened level of uncertainty about the outlook."

It means headline inflation now sits at the top end of the RBA's 2-3% inflation target, prompting some economists to alter their interest rate forecasts with NAB no longer expecting another rate cut until well into 2026.

REA Group senior economist Eleanor Creagh said the focus will now be on whether the next quarterly inflation data release backs up the recent CPI jump.

“The bank is remaining cautious and data-dependent as it waits for the September quarter inflation report,” she said. “It will provide them a clearer read on the inflation trajectory before committing to another move.”

Aussies could be waiting months for a cut now, with Mortgage Choice chief executive Anthony Waldron agreeing the bank will be waiting on upcoming data.

“The RBA has been clear that it is taking a longer-term view when making decisions about the cash rate,” he said.

Read our full analysis: RBA leaves cash rate unchanged at 3.6% as inflation heats up

No more interest rate cuts could be a ‘good news story’

4.10pm

No further rate cuts in Australia “could be” a good news story for the country, governor Bullock has said.

“We know that many households with mortgages have actually been saving rather than spending everything. As their mortgage repayments have come down, they’ve opted not to reduce their repayments, they’ve maintained them, which suggests some caution,” she said.

“One upside scenario is they react to that and start consuming again. That’s good for business and good for employment. It’s not a bad news scenario and if we don’t lower interest rates further, I wouldn’t say that’s necessarily a bad news story.”

RBA defends claims of providing false sense of hope

4.01pm

Governor Bullock has been pushed to defend the bank’s messaging around Australia’s success battling inflation in this afternoon’s press conference.

“I’m not sure I ever said that inflation was tamed,” she said. “Certainty I have said that we have made a lot of progress in getting it back down into the range which it now is.

“It is possible consumers have responded to the news that inflation is coming down because we are observing now is that real incomes are rising. As housing prices have been rising and shares have been rising, we would expect to see households start to increase their consumption again. That is welcome, because it reflects they are feeling better about things.”

Bullock: Prices have risen permanently

3.57pm

Responding to a media question on higher prices in the domestic economy, Ms Bullock has issued a stark warning on what Aussies can expect from cost-of-living moving forward, regardless of inflation.

The governor said it was a fact that prices would not ever return to pre-Covid levels.

“Prices have risen and they are staying up there permanently,” she said. “We are not going to see a decline. We don’t want to see deflation, because that’s not good for businesses. That’s why low and stable inflation is best when it is in the background and it isn’t influencing decisions.”

RBA governor Michele Bullock has warned that cost of living prices have risen permanently. Picture: Monique Harmer

RBA’s findings on China and US

3:47pm

Opening the post-rate decision press conference this afternoon, governor Michele Bullock defended the bank’s flightpath, saying monetary policy is working as expected even with rising international threats.

“In our August forecasts, we expected global growth to slow, partly reflecting the impact of tariffs and changing trade flows. Since then, there has been some weaker than expected growth in China,” she said.

“Data from the US has been more mixed, with weak employment data but relatively strong activity data. The board sees the risks as broadly balanced and it remains data-driven. By the next meeting in November, we’ll have more data on the labour market as well as inflation data for the September quarter.”

Bullock to address the media

3.34pm

Governor Michele Bullock will appear at her usual post-rate announcement press conference shortly to speak through the board’s decision and its accompanying statement which includes its economic forecast.

Ms Bullock is expected to touch on the recent uptick in unemployment, the trajectory of both headline and underlying inflation, and any changes to the board’s medium- and long-term outlooks for the economy.

The speech and the accompanying open Q&A will allow the governor an opportunity to dive into the board’s thought process leading up to today’s decision as well as flag any areas in which the board may have struggled to reach a consensus.

RBA admits ‘heightened level of uncertainty’

3.17pm

In its post-rate hold statement this afternoon, the bank also flagged increasing levels of uncertainty around the economic outlook, along with concerns around how long it is actually taking the effects of its monetary policy easing to be felt.’

“Financial conditions have eased since the beginning of the year and this seems to be having some impact, but it will take time to see the full effects of earlier cash rate reductions,” the statement read. “The board judged it was appropriate to remain cautious, updating its view of the outlook as the data evolves.

“The board remains alert to the heightened level of uncertainty around the outlook.”

Inflation risks key in rate hold decision

3.03pm

The RBA board has issued its statement to accompany its rate hold decision, confirming all board members were unanimous in the choice.

It comes after the latest headline inflation data confirmed the highest annual inflation rate for Australia in 13 months. The statement said the findings suggest the all-important quarterly data for July-September – set to be released in a few weeks – may paint a similar picture. It also said that inflation may be “higher than expected” and higher than what was suggested when rates were cut five weeks ago.

“Stronger-than expected data on growth and inflation may indicate that households have become more comfortable consuming as real incomes and wealth rise,” the statement read.

No relief for borrowers

2.42pm

Today’s decision by the RBA to hold the cash rate steady at 3.60% will no doubt be disappointing for households with a mortgage. Another 0.25% cut from the bank could have seen those with a $500,000 home loan save around $80 a month.

For people looking to get on the property ladder this spring selling season however, home prices are expected to be more stable than if rates had been cut.

Lenders are also likely to consider putting more loan options with competitive interest rates out into the market in a bid to secure more customers. This is especially likely given forecasts for a rate cut in early November.

Cash rate held steady at 3.60%

2.30pm

The RBA has confirmed there will be no change to Australia’s cash rate and it will remain at 3.60%.

The decision this afternoon is in line with market and economist expectations and sees the continuation of the bank’s easing cycle trajectory. A consecutive cut, hold, cut, hold pattern of decision making has now been followed for seven months – a gradual easing against the cost-of-living crisis while country has grappled to stabilise inflation.

There are still two more opportunities for borrowers, homeowners and property seekers to benefit from lower interest rates this year however, with the board set to meet again in both November and December.

Economist call: Rate cut unlikely

2.13pm

With inflation back on the rise, REA Group executive manager of economics Angus Moore says it’s very unlikely the RBA will pull a surprise move this afternoon.

“We’re unlikely to see much from them this month,” he said. “The monthly CPI indicator was a bit higher for August, which makes a cut even less likely.

“The RBA will want to wait for the next quarterly CPI release at the end of next month, which will come a little before the November meeting. That will give them more information on how inflation is tracking, particularly as they are not putting as much weight on the monthly CPI indicator.”

Interest rate predictions from the big four banks

2.03pm

Having previously anticipated further rate cuts this year, National Australia Bank has now backtracked and does not expect any more changes to the cash rate until 2026.

Australia’s largest lender Commonwealth Bank has forecast the next rate cut for November, though its economists warned this week that the latest CPI indicator could change the outlook. Westpac says a November interest rate cut is now less certain, though it remains their base case. Neither bank has forecast a cut for today.

Economists at ANZ are also forecasting one more rate cut in November but say there is now a “real risk” that won’t happen.

REIA calls for interest rate cut

1.46pm

The Real Estate Institute of Australia is urging the Reserve Bank to plough on with rate relief today, despite the recent rise in headline inflation confirmed last week by the ABS.

While the August data marked the highest annual inflation rate in 13 months, deputy president Hannah Gill noted annual trimmed mean inflation is still within the RBA’s 2-3% target range and low enough for the bank to cut.

The industry body said balance in the property market is crucial, adding that actions that help with tackling the core property market problems of affordability and lack of housing supply continue to be important.

Home prices continue to rise

1.29pm

Australians are continuing to grapple with rising property prices, with the latest PropTrack Home Price Index confirming August was the eighth consecutive month of price growth.

Home values rose 0.5% last month to reach a fresh record high for the nation. Property prices have jumped 5.3% in the last year, with the median value of a home in Australia now sitting at $835,000.

Sydney continues to be the most expensive city in the country to buy a home, followed by Perth and Brisbane. Darwin, Brisbane and Perth are the capitals which have seen the largest price growth increases over the last 12 months.

Markets anticipating a hold

1.14pm

Market expectations of a rate cut have been dropping progressively over the second half of the month, taking a clear dive following the release of the June quarter national accounts data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

While the economy grew slightly more than economists were expecting, the data confirmed 2024-25 was the weakest financial year for growth in Australia since the early 1990s, excluding Covid.

The likelihood of a cut has been declining daily since 17 September, with the Australian Stock Exchange RBA rate indicator showing 96% of the market do not expect a cut from the bank today.

Treasurer confident on inflation

1.02pm

Treasurer Jim Chalmers says he is still confident in the inflationary outlook for the country, despite the uptick observed for August.

“Monthly inflation figures can be volatile and are less reliable than the quarterly figures,” he said. “Progress on inflation has given the RBA confidence to cut rates three times.

“Despite increased volatility in the global economy, underlying inflation is within the RBA’s target and that’s a promising result in uncertain times. These results come at a time where inflation has ticked up in parts of the world including the United States, Canada and New Zealand and remains stubbornly high in places like the United Kingdom.”

RBA warns the economy is ‘at risk’

12.47pm

This afternoon’s cash rate decision comes a week on from RBA governor Michele Bullock’s appearance in Canberra in front of the House of Representatives’ Standing Committee of Economics.

Ms Bullock was largely positive when recapping Australia’s progress in curbing high inflation and the nation’s move into a sustained period of lower inflation. Despite this, she suggested the board’s outlook for Australia’s economy is weakening “the further into the future we look”.

The comments follow continuing international market volatility off the back of geopolitical tensions in Europe and the Middle East, as well as the fallout from the introduction of global tariffs by the United States.

Cut, hold, cut, hold, cut…?

12.29pm

September marks seven months since the RBA began its first rate cutting cycle in more than four years.

Since that welcome relief for Aussie homeowners and borrowers, the bank has yo-yoed between holding the cash rate steady and cutting it. Cuts of 0.25% in February, May and August were interspersed with rate holds in April and July.

While it may feel like things are moving more slowly than anticipated at the start of the year, the approach aligns with the RBA’s plans to gradually provide easing while inflation softens.

Based on this pattern, we’re in line for a hold… but the RBA doesn’t make decisions based on patterns.

Inflation uptick concern

12:13pm

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) monthly indicator last week showed headline inflation jumped to 3.0% in August. That is right at the top of the RBA’s desired 2-3% target range where it has been fighting to keep inflation since Covid.

While the bank has been expecting a small rise in headline inflation to coincide with electricity rebate roll offs, the latest data marks the highest annual inflation rate seen in 13 months.

The bank’s preferred figure is trimmed mean inflation, which strips out the effects of one-off and volatile price movements. It rose slightly to 2.7% in August but is still in target.

Welcome to our live blog

12.01pm

Thank you for joining us today for this live coverage of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) next cash rate decision, which is expected at 2:30pm.

We’ll be bringing you all the latest forecasts and updates over the afternoon while we wait to hear whether the cash rate will remain at 3.60% or be lowered for a fourth time this year.

If another 0.25% cut is confirmed, it will result in the lowest rate Australia has seen since early 2023. It will also mark the highest number of rate cuts Aussies will have seen in one calendar year since 2012.

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