First-home buyers could finally catch a break, with new figures revealing dozens of suburbs where property prices are falling – even as the broader market continues to climb.
The surprise “discount suburbs” emerge just as the federal government rolls out its 5 per cent First Home Guarantee scheme, offering the chance for buyers to stack market dips with extra savings.
While national home prices have recorded their ninth consecutive month of growth, adding a significant $54,100 to the median property value according to the REA Group’s latest Home Price Index, a different story is unfolding in nearly a thousand suburbs across Australia.
New data from PropTrack reveals that a staggering 930 suburbs across all states and territories experienced a decline in either house or unit values over the past quarter.
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Even more remarkably, 219 of these saw double-digit percentage drops, presenting a potential golden ticket for first-home buyers.
This is based on suburbs data where at least 30 properties sold over the past 12 months.
This divergence in the market means that while sellers in many areas are enjoying continued growth, savvy buyers could find significant opportunities in these pockets of falling prices.
Where are the biggest discounts?
Victoria’s Cohuna, approximately 274 kilometres north of Melbourne, topped the list for house price reductions.
Properties in this country town are now 42 per cent cheaper than they were three months ago. In real terms, this means a median price drop of $163,800, from $553,800 in June to $390,000 in September.
Queensland also saw substantial shifts, with Ascot, a northeast Brisbane suburb, experiencing a 40.1 per cent drop in house prices since June. The median house price there plummeted by $1,022,500, from $3,572,500 to $2.55 million.
Nearly 1000 suburbs have bucked the national property trend with falling prices, creating rare opportunities for first-home buyers seeking market entry.
Further north, Tara and East Innisfail also recorded significant price reductions of over 30 per cent.
Sydney wasn’t immune to the trend, with several prominent suburbs seeing substantial declines.
Waverley, Blakehurst, Glebe, and Bronte all recorded price drops exceeding 30 per cent over the quarter.
In South Australia, the popular tourist destination of Tumby Bay, located about 45 kilometres north of Port Lincoln, recorded a 26.2 per cent loss in median house values.
This equates to a drop of $126,743, bringing the median from $610,493 down to $483,750. Closer to the capital, Adelaide’s Hectorville saw the biggest quarterly price drop for the SA capital, with house prices down by $221,116 (21.2 per cent), with homes now selling for around $1.043 million.
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Ascot in Brisbane experienced a 40.1 per cent drop in house prices since June. Picture: realestate.com.au/sold
Tasmania’s Old Beach, roughly 20km north of Hobart, offered the biggest discount value in the state. Home prices there dropped from $826,540 in June to $715,000 in September, representing a loss of $111,540.
REA Group senior economist Eleanor Creagh sheds light on these localised declines.
“Across the country, a number of suburbs have recorded median sales price declines over the past quarter,” Ms Creagh noted.
“It’s important to note that median sale prices reflect the mix of properties that happened to sell in each suburb (and) unlike the PropTrack Home Price Index, they are not compositionally adjusted, so swings can be exaggerated by a change in the types of homes selling.
“That said, they may provide a read on where momentum may have cooled.”
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REA Group senior economist Eleanor Creagh
Despite these nuances, Ms Creagh believes these figures present genuine opportunities.
“For those looking to purchase, identifying suburbs where medians have eased may present opportunities to buy into locations that were previously out of reach,” she said.
“Many of the suburbs showing median price falls are in regional markets, though several suburbs in outer metro areas are recording quarterly declines.
“A handful of high-end suburbs also feature, this likely reflects thinner transaction volumes at the top end of the market.”
“Cheat sheet” for first-home buyers fuels spring market surge
Property experts and mortgage brokers from Two Red Shoes, Rebecca Jarrett-Dalton and Brett Sutton, predict the spring market will be the most active in recent memory, driven by a potent combination of high buyer demand, robust seller confidence, and the First Home Guarantee Scheme.
Additionally, the existence of “discount suburbs” effectively provides a “cheat sheet” for first-home buyers, offering tangible opportunities to leverage the government’s 5 per cent deposit scheme.
This confluence of factors is expected to fuel a market run that could extend well into and past Christmas, driven by a renewed sense of urgency and changing buyer priorities.
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Prices in the Sydney suburb of Glebe dropped by 30 per cent over the past quarter.. Picture: realestate.com.au/sold
“We’re seeing an unprecedented level of activity, with high auction numbers already a clear indicator of the market’s trajectory,” Mr Sutton said.
“Last week, Sydney saw its second-highest number of auctions for the year. This kind of volume, even before the new First Home Guarantee Scheme changes take effect, signals a powerful market run.”
The new FHGS is expected to unleash a significant number of new buyers, however, Ms Jarrett-Dalton voiced a key concern.
“While inquiries are at an all-time high, the big question is whether we will have enough stock to meet this demand,” she said.
“The market is incredibly hot, and this could lead to a highly competitive environment for buyers, with many homes selling for hundreds of thousands above their reserve.
“With listings not keeping pace with buyer demand, buyers are needing to compromise faster and bid harder.”
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